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Oil edges down as demand woes outweighs big draw in crude stocks

HOUSTON, Aug 23 (Reuters) – Oil prices dipped 1% on Wednesday as demand woes stemming from a build in U.S. gasoline stocks and weak manufacturing data globally outweighed optimism around a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude stocks.

Brent crude was down 82 cents, or 0.98%, at $83.21 a barrel, bouncing off a 2.5% decline earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 75 cents, or 0.9%, at $78.89. At the session low it was down 3.4%. U.S. gasoline stocks climbed 1.5 million barrels last week, compared with analysts estimates for a 888,000 barrel drop.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories (USOILC=ECI) fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week to Aug. 18, the Energy Information Administration said, helped by strong refining activity and high levels of exports. Analysts had expected a 2.8 million-barrel drop.

While refiners continue to run at a high rate and snap up oil inventories, fuel demand hasn’t been very strong due to tough economic conditions, Kilduff added. Manufacturing data from a host of purchasing managers’ index (PMI) surveys painted a grim picture of the health of economies across the globe.

Japan reported shrinking factory activity for a third straight month in August. Euro zone business activity also declined more than expected, particularly in Germany. Britain’s economy looked looks set to shrink in the current quarter, in danger of falling into recession. U.S. business activity approached the stagnation point in August, with growth at its weakest since February.

Markets are also looking for hints on the outlook for interest rates when Federal Reserve officials and policymakers from the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan head to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Thursday.

Talk has shifted to keeping interest rates around where they are now – but for longer than perhaps previously estimated – rather than raising them further. On the supply side, Iran’s crude oil output will reach 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of September, the country’s oil minister was quoted as saying by state media, even though U.S. sanctions remain in place.

Saudi Arabia will likely roll over a voluntary oil cut of 1 million barrels per day for a third consecutive month into October, five analysts said, amid uncertainty about supplies and as the kingdom targets drawing down global inventories further.

Reporting by Paul Carsten and Natalie Grover in London, Yuka Obayashi in Tokyo and Andrew Hayley in Beijing Editing by Mark Potter, David Goodman, David Gregorio and David Evans

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Dow, S&P 500 end down as US interest-rate worries mount, bank shares slip

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The Dow and S&P 500 ended slightly lower on Tuesday as investors stayed worried the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer and as banks shares eased. The Nasdaq finished barely in the green.

The financial sector <.SPBK> fell 0.9% and was the biggest drag on the S&P 500. An S&P downgrade of credit ratings of multiple regional U.S. lenders weighed on banks shares, with the KBW regional banking index (.KRX) sliding 2.7% and the S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) falling 2.4%.

Investors hope for clarity on the rate outlook when Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a meeting of central bankers on Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

“Rates have backed up pretty good again, so that’s kind of putting somewhat of a damper on stocks,” said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit almost 16-year highs overnight on the view the Fed could keep rates higher for longer. Higher borrowing costs can slow spending by businesses and consumers.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 174.86 points, or 0.51%, to 34,288.83, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 12.22 points, or 0.28%, to 4,387.55 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 8.28 points, or 0.06%, to 13,505.87.

Investors also eagerly awaited results and a forecast from chip heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA.O) due after the bell on Wednesday. Nvidia surprised investors with its strong forecast in May, fueling a rally in its own and other tech stocks amid artificial intelligence hopes.

Shares of Nvidia hit an all-time high of $481.87 early but were down 2.8% on the day.

Department stores were among the day’s biggest decliners. Macy’s (M.N) sank 14.1% after the chain warned of weak consumer spending through the crucial holiday shopping season. Shares of Kohl’s Corp. (KSS.N) were down 10.3% while Nordstrom Inc (JWN.N) was down 9.8%.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.38 billion shares, compared with the 10.97 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.43-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.43-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 4 new 52-week highs and 13 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 39 new highs and 221 new lows.

Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; additional reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Shristi Achar A; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli, Maju Samuel and David Gregorio

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/nvidia-earnings-optimism-drives-futures-higher-2023-08-22/

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Oil prices inch higher amid tighter supplies, demand uncertainty

Investing.com– Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Tuesday, recovering a measure of overnight losses as bets on tightening global supplies helped somewhat offset concerns over potential weakness in demand for the remainder of the year.

Extended production cuts by major suppliers Saudi Arabia and Russia have been the biggest source of support for crude markets in recent weeks, with prices trending at four-month highs on expectations of tighter supplies.

These expectations were also boosted by a leak in Russia’s Druzhba oil pipeline, as well as a recent Ukraine attack on a Russian oil tanker, which could limit oil shipments from the world’s third-largest crude producer.

Brent oil futures rose 0.3% to $85.47 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.2% to $82.11 a barrel by 21:24 ET (01:24 GMT). Both contracts slid over 1% on Monday, breaking a six-day winning streak.

Demand uncertainty still in play
But gains in oil prices were limited, amid concerns over a demand slowdown this year, especially as the U.S. summer season winds down. Markets fear this could result in fewer big inventory draws in the country.

Economic weakness in China, the world’s largest oil importer, has also weighed on the country’s fuel consumption. While oil shipments to China have remained at record levels, fuel demand has struggled to reach pre-COVID levels.

Trade data due later on Tuesday is set to shed more light on China’s economic health, with both exports and imports expected to have declined further in July. Inflation data from the country is due on Wednesday, and is also expected to offer more economic cues.

Investors are also watching for any more stimulus measures from China, as the country grapples with a slowing post-COVID recovery.

Strong dollar, inflation uncertainty weighs
Strength in the dollar, amid growing uncertainty over the path of U.S. interest rates, also kept a cap on more oil prices.

The greenback saw increased bids this week as investors positioned themselves for a potentially stronger consumer price index inflation reading on Thursday. While U.S. inflation decreased substantially this year, it still remained well above the Federal Reserve’s annual target range, potentially attracting a sustained hawkish stance from the central bank.

Fed officials also offered mixed signals on future rate hikes, brewing more uncertainty over the coming inflation data as investors sought clearer signs of easing U.S. inflation.

Rising interest rates, or even higher-for-longer rates, are expected to weigh on economic activity in the remainder of the year- which investors fear could stymie global oil demand.

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Wall Street holds gains ahead of earnings, jobs data

July 31 (Reuters) – Wall Street and global stocks edged up on Monday while oil prices gained and the dollar was little changed, as traders looked ahead to corporate earnings and a key employment report due this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 0.28% to 35,560.19, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 0.15% to 4,589.15 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 0.21% to 14,346.02.

Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Amazon.com (AMZN.O) both report on Thursday, while other well-known names with results due include Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N), Starbucks Corp (SBUX.O) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O).

European shares gained modestly after euro zone inflation fell further in July seeing that most measures of underlying price growth also eased. Markets took this as a comforting sign for the European Central Bank (ECB) as it considers ending a brutal string of interest rate hikes.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose by 0.12%, a second consecutive monthly gain. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.15%.

The modest gains came despite China’s manufacturing activity falling for a fourth straight month in July, as demand remained weak at home and abroad, official surveys showed on Monday.

“Markets are treating information with a lot more sensitivity and people are looking into new information with a detailed eye,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.

“Data out this week should remain superficially consistent with the ‘soft landing’ narrative,” Citi market strategists wrote in a note. “But the potential return to upside surprises to job growth would raise questions about whether slowing inflation can coexist with tight labor markets.”

All three main U.S. indexes have posted recent gains as signs of cooling inflation and a resilient economy have eased investor sentiment about the economy surviving amid higher rates for longer.

Upbeat quarterly earnings from megacap growth companies including Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Meta Platforms (META.O) as well as chipmakers Intel (INTC.O) and Lam Research (LRCX.O) have also boosted investor sentiment.

Almost 30% of the S&P 500 reports results this week. The index is now up nearly 20% for the year.

Paul Christopher, Wells Fargo Investment Institute’s head of global investment strategy, urged caution given the potential for a weaker economy, slower disinflation and narrower corporate profits.

“This year’s impressive equity rally has been driven by strong sentiment, without either the earnings growth or the directional improvement in economic data to justify current market multiples and valuations,” Christopher wrote in a note.

RISING RATES
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee on Monday said the U.S. central bank is “walking the line pretty well” on bringing inflation down without causing a recession, and will watch the data as September approaches to judge if more monetary tightening may be appropriate.

The Bank of England is widely expected to raise rates by at least a quarter point. Traders cut bets on a continuing rally in the pound by the most since mid-June ahead of the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday.

Sterling has surged 24% from a record low of $1.033 against the dollar in September after a disastrous budget, hitting a 15-month high of $1.314 in mid-July.

The dollar edged higher on Monday after a survey from the Federal Reserve showed U.S. banks reported tighter credit standards and weaker loan demand during the second quarter, a sign rising interest rates are having an impact on the economy.

The Japanese yen weakened about 0.8% versus the dollar . Investors continued to digest Friday’s decision by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to lift the lid on bond yields in a step away from its ultra-easy policies.

Japanese 10-year yields surged to a nine-year high up to 0.6% on Monday, and toward the new cap of 1.0%.

U.S. Treasury yields were marginally lower, with investors waiting for employment data to assess the impact of the Fed’s monetary tightening campaign on the economy. The 10-year was down 1 basis point at 3.961%.

In commodities, gold prices rose, putting them on track for their best month in four, helped by a weaker dollar and expectations that major global central banks are nearing a peak with interest rate hikes. Spot gold added 0.3% to $1,965 an ounce

Oil prices rallied to a fresh three-month high and recorded their steepest monthly gains since January 2022, supported by signs of tightening global supply and rising demand through the rest of this year.

U.S. crude rose 1.63% to $81.89 per barrel and Brent was at $85.56, up 0.67% on the day.

Reporting by Lawrence Delevingne in Boston and Nell Mackenzie in London; Editing by Nick Macfie, Will Dunham and Deepa Babington

https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-pix-2023-07-31/

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Asia FX rises, Chinese yuan surges amid intervention reports

Investing.com — Most Asian currencies rose on Thursday as a rebound in the dollar paused, while the Chinese yuan shot up amid reports of government intervention to support the battered currency.

The yuan surged 0.7%, with a Reuters report stating that China’s biggest state-owned banks were seen selling dollars for yuan in the offshore spot market in early trade.

The People’s Bank of China also kept its benchmark loan prime rate on hold on Thursday, and loosened a cross-border financing rule that is expected to ease pressure on the yuan.

The currency was among the best performing Asian units for the day, with the offshore yuan also strengthening about 0.7% to the dollar. Reported intervention by the Chinese government comes as signs of slowing economic growth in China weighed on the yuan this week.

Data released on Monday showed that China’s economy barely grew in the second quarter.

Concerns over China had pulled most Asian currencies lower this week, even as the government vowed more fiscal support for a slowing economic recovery. But Asian currencies recovered some lost ground on Thursday.

The Japanese yen rose 0.3% after coming close to hitting the 140 level against the dollar in overnight trade. The currency was also supported by data showing that Japan logged an unexpected trade surplus in June.

The South Korean won rose 0.2%, while the Indian rupee rose 0.1%.

Australian dollar rallies as labor data cheers RBA hawks
The Australian dollar surged 0.8% on Thursday, reversing three sessions of losses as data showed the country’s labor market grew more than expected in June.

Strength in the labor market factors into higher consumer inflation, which gives the Reserve Bank more cause and space to keep raising interest rates – a scenario that bodes well for the Australian currency.

While the bank had kept rates steady, the minutes of the RBA meeting released this week showed that it was still considering more rate hikes, given sticky inflation levels and a robust jobs market.

The U.S. dollar retreated slightly in Asian trade after marking a strong rebound in the past three sessions. The dollar index and dollar index futures fell about 0.2% each.

Traders began building positions in the dollar ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting next week, with the central bank widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points.

But focus remains largely on whether the Fed will signal an extended pause in its rate hike cycle, given recent softness in U.S. inflation.

https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/asia-fx-rises-chinese-yuan-surges-amid-intervention-reports-3129388

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Asian stocks surge as markets bet on peak Fed rates, China stimulus

Investing.com — Most Asian stocks rose sharply on Tuesday amid expectations that the Federal Reserve was close to concluding its rate hike cycle for the year, while the prospect of more stimulus measures from China also aided sentiment.

Comments from several Fed officials this week suggested that while the central bank will still hike rates further in the coming months, it will have limited headroom to keep doing so. Weak labor market data also furthered this notion.

A swathe of weak economic readings from China spurred increased bets that Beijing will roll out more stimulus measures to help support a slowing economic recovery. Inflation data on Monday showed that consumer spending was on the brink of deflation, sending largely bearish signals on Asia’s largest economy. 

Technology-heavy indexes were the best performers in Asia for the day, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rallying 1.6% on strength in heavyweights Baidu Inc (HK:9888) (NASDAQ:BIDU), Alibaba Group (HK:9988) (NYSE:BABA), and Tencent Holdings Ltd (HK:0700). The trio rose between 1.7% and 2.5%, extending gains from the prior session.

In addition to the prospect of a Fed pause, Asian technology stocks were also aided by easing Chinese scrutiny towards the country’s biggest internet firms. Beijing had last week imposed record-high fines on Alibaba’s Ant Group and Tencent, but investors took this as a sign that the country was now done with its regulatory crusade against its technology giants.

Other tech-heavy bourses also rallied, with South Korea’s KOSPI and the Taiwan Weighted index up 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 0.3%, while the broader TOPIX added 0.1%. 

Chinese real estate stocks, including Country Garden Holdings (HK:2007) and China Vanke Co Ltd (SZ:000002), rose on Tuesday after the People’s Bank of China said it was extending policy support for the sector until end-2024. 

The move helped offset some pessimism over slowing growth in China, and also spurred bets on more stimulus spending by Beijing, especially ahead of a high-level government meeting later in July.

Optimism over China fueled a 1.2% jump in Australia’s ASX 200 index, which was also aided by data signaling a recovery in consumer sentiment.

But China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes somewhat lagged their peers, rising 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. Investors still remained wary of directly investing in Chinese stocks, given the uncertainty over the country’s economic prospects.

Broader Asian markets rose on Tuesday. Futures for India’s Nifty 50 index pointed to a positive open for local stocks, with India’s major indexes trading close to record highs.

Focus was now on key U.S. consumer inflation data due on Wednesday, as well as a string of Fed speakers this week.

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Oil slips as weak Chinese data fuels demand concerns

Chinese consumer inflation shrank in May from the prior month, while factory gate inflation hit a seven-year low as an economic recovery in the country sputtered through the second quarter.

The readings, coupled with a string of weak economic prints from the country over the past two weeks, further undermined bets that a recovery in China will push oil demand to record highs this year. 

Fears of slowing demand also largely offset signs of tighter supply following a fresh production cut by Saudi Arabia, and put crude prices on course for a second straight week of losses.

Brent oil futures fell 0.7% to $75.44 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.7% to $70.81 a barrel by 22:18 ET (02:18 GMT). Both contracts were set to lose between 0.6% and 1.2% this week. 

While Chinese oil imports still rose through May, analysts attributed the rise largely to local refiners building inventory, and that fuel demand in the world’s largest oil importer still remained weak.

Soft economic indicators from the world’s largest oil consumer also stymied crude markets this week.

U.S. inventory data showed that gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose in the past week, ducking expectations that fuel demand will increase as the travel-heavy summer season approaches.

Signs of a U.S. economic slowdown continued to trickle in, with recent indicators showing that business activity slowed through May, while the jobs market showed some signs of cooling. The weak readings pulled down the dollar, but offered little support to crude as traders fretted over worsening U.S. growth.

Reports of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal, which could flood the market with more crude, also dented oil prices this week, although White House officials denied any such agreement.

Focus is now squarely on an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting next week, for more cues on how the central bank plans to approach policy amid worsening economic conditions.

Market expectations are largely skewed towards a pause in the Fed’s rate hike cycle, which could provide some near-term support to oil by weighing on the dollar.

But given that recent personal consumption and labor market indicators still beat expectations, traders remained uncertain over just what the Fed will signal.

This uncertainty also weighed on oil markets through the week.

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-slips-as-weak-chinese-data-fuels-demand-concerns-3101587

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Oil edges lower as OPEC-driven rally fizzles out

Oil prices crept lower in Asian trade on Tuesday as initial optimism over more supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and the OPEC was largely offset by persistent concerns over slowing economic growth and weakening demand.

While crude markets initially marked a strong rally in response to more production cuts by Saudi Arabia on Monday, they pared a bulk of their gains by the end of the session as weak U.S. economic data ramped up concerns over a recession this year.

Saudi Arabia pledged to cut production by an additional 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, adding to a total of 3.66 million in supply cuts by the OPEC since October. But markets questioned whether lower production targets for other OPEC+ members- particularly Russia, Angola and Nigeria, would have a tangible impact, given that they bring the targets in line with actual output levels.

Markets also bet that any slowdown in demand will largely outweigh tighter supplies this year.

Brent oil futures fell 0.5% to $76.17 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.8% to $71.58 a barrel by 21:30 ET (01:30 GMT). Both contracts rose as much as 3% on Monday before settling up between 0.6% and 0.8%. 

Data on Monday showed that U.S. service sector activity barely grew in May, as strong growth seen over the past few months now appeared to be running out of steam. The data put more headwinds to the U.S. economy- chiefly rising interest rates and high inflation- in stark focus, ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting next week.

Markets are split over whether the central bank will hike or hold interest rates, given somewhat mixed signals on the move in recent weeks. While inflation and labor market data surprised to the upside, several Fed officials have called on the bank to hold rates and watch for more effects of its year-long rate hike spree, given that several facets of the U.S. economy have cooled in recent months.

Focus this week is also on economic readings from major crude importer China, amid growing concerns that a post-COVID rebound in the country is running out of steam.

Inflation and trade data from China is on tap this week, with the latter expected to provide more cues on the country’s appetite for commodities amid weak manufacturing activity.

Still, data this week showed that China’s services sector grew more than expected in May, indicating some resilience in the economy after the lifting of anti-COVID measures earlier this year. 

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-edges-lower-as-opecdriven-rally-fizzles-out-3098698

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Markets get twitchy as debt ceiling, growth fears weigh

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee

Signs of an economic slowdown across the globe, lingering worries over the U.S. debt ceiling and ever-present fear of a deepening banking sector crisis have kept investors skittish and risk averse through the week and Friday has been no different.

The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index eased 0.5%, with Japan’s Nikkei indeed the exception, as it has been for the year, rising 0.8% on the day. The U.S. dollar was clinging to Thursday gains and was set to snap a two-week losing streak. Gold remained steady while short-covering pushed oil prices higher.

Investor focus will turn to a slew of economic data out of Europe, with British gross domestic product data showcasing the state of economy and likely influencing sterling’s fate. The pound was still reeling from a dive on Thursday after the Bank of England raised interest rates and kept the door open for further monetary tightening.

Also on the deck will be inflation reports from France and Spain that will highlight what kind of impact European tightening has had on prices in the region.

Data in U.S. hours showed the labour market might be showing signs of cracks, whereas inflation eased a bit, leading traders to bet that the Federal Reserve is likely done with tightening.

Meanwhile, worries over national debt remain, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen due to discuss the impasse over raising the government debt ceiling with board members of the Bank Policy Institute lobby group next week.

A meeting between President Joe Biden and top lawmakers scheduled for Friday has been postponed, stoking further investor concern. The federal government could run out of money to pay its bills as soon as June 1 – in two and a half weeks – if the ceiling is not raised.

Elsewhere, the U.S. regional banking saga shows no sign of stopping, with PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) the latest to face investor ire after the Los Angeles-based lender said deposits declined and that it had posted more collateral to the Fed to boost liquidity.

“The news headlines increased our customers’ fears of the safety of their deposits,” the bank said.

Finally, it looks like Twitter will soon have a new CEO. Elon Musk said (on Twitter, naturally) he has found a new chief executive for the social media site, but did not name the person, while the Wall Street Journal reported that Comcast NBCUniversal executive Linda Yaccarino was in talks for the job.

Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Christopher Cushing

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Asia shares inch higher, U.S. inflation test looms

SYDNEY, May 8 (Reuters) – Asian shares crept higher on Monday as investors braced for a week where U.S. inflation data will test wagers the next move in interest rates will be down, while worries about a possible credit crunch weighed on the dollar.

Friday’s robust U.S. payrolls report has already delivered a setback to easing hopes and any upside surprise on consumer prices would challenge bets for a rate cut as soon as September.

Forecasts are for a rise of 0.4% in April for both the headline and core CPI, with the annual pace of core inflation slowing just a tick to 5.5%. Later Monday, the Federal Reserve’s survey of loan officers will draw an unusual amount of attention as markets seek to gauge the impact of regional banking stress on lending.

“The survey should point to further broad-based tightening in bank lending standards,” said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan.

“Continued stress in the banking system does, of course, increase concern that a disruptive financial market event is on the horizon,” he added. “Though our analysis suggests that the impact of a credit tightening against an otherwise healthy backdrop tends to be limited.”

Caution made for a slow start in markets and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged up 0.3%, while Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) eased 0.3%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both off 0.1%, after jumping on Friday in the wake of Apple’s (AAPL.O) upbeat results.

While the S&P 500 is up almost 8% for the year so far, all of that is due to just five mega stocks which have collectively risen by 29% so far this year and trade at a 49% premium to the rest of the index.

Bond markets were still stinging from the strong payrolls report with U.S. two-year yields up at 3.95% after briefly getting as low at 3.657% last week. Futures imply a near 90% chance the Fed will keep rates steady at its next meeting in June, and a 75% probability of a cut in September.

The market is still pricing in at least one more hike from the European Central Bank, while the Bank of England is widely expected to lift its rates by a quarter point on Thursday. The diverging outlook on rates has underpinned the euro and pound, with the latter hitting a one-year high on the U.S. dollar last week. The euro was holding at $1.1018 on Monday, just short of its recent top of $1.1096.

“While it is premature to get too ‘beared up’ on the dollar until a clearer peak in U.S. rates is seen, the U.S. banking sector travails that have no easy/costless solutions, continue to make for a mildly bearish medium-term story,” said Alan Ruskin, head of global FX strategy at Deutsche Bank.

“Certainly it imposes more growth constraints and a greater stagflationary bias than for major competing economies.”

The dollar has fared better on the yen as the Bank of Japan remains the only central bank in the developed world to not have tightened policy. The dollar stood at 135.19 yen , with the euro at 148.93 and not far from its recent 15-year peak of 151.55.

The prospect of a pause in U.S. rate hikes has been a boon for non-yielding gold which was holding at $2,015 an ounce after nearing a record high last week. Oil prices have been going the other way as fears of a global economic slowdown outweighed planned output cuts to see U.S. crude shed more than 7% last week. Brent was last up 3 cents at $75.33 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 5 cents to $71.39 per barrel.

Reporting by Wayne Cole Editing by Shri Navaratnam