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Stocks fall, bonds rise as investors seek safety

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Wall Street equities fell and U.S. Treasuries rallied on Tuesday a day before a likely Federal Reserve rate hike as investors grappled with growing economic concerns after retail giant Walmart Inc’s (WMT.N) profit warning and signs of a looming gas supply crisis in Europe.

The bid for safety also boosted the U.S. dollar, which snapped a three-session losing streak, while the energy supply concerns weighed on the euro.

European Union leaders agreed to ration gas usage after Russian’s Gazprom (GAZP.MM) said gas flows to Germany would fall from Wednesday to half of the current amount – already at just 40% of normal capacity. U.S. equities fell with retail stocks after Walmart slashed its profit forecast late on Monday as surging prices for food and fuel spurred consumers to cut back on discretionary purchases.

Since Walmart is seen as a “litmus test for the health of the consumer,” Carol Schleif, deputy chief investment officer at BMO Family Office, said investors are concerned about growth and feeling uncertain ahead of key economic data due out this week and the Fed’s interest rate decision expected on Wednesday.

“This week is forcing investors to be very short-term oriented. It’s not allowing anybody to lift their eyes up even a week or a month,” Schleif said. “It’s an asset market, not just in stocks, that seems to suggest people think growth is questionable in the intermediate term.”

Investors are expecting a 75 basis point Fed rate increase on Wednesday, with markets pricing about a 10% risk of a larger hike, as well as waiting to see whether economic warning signs prompt a shift in rhetoric.

“If they did 100 basis points it would probably surprise the market. There’s that nervousness. If it’s 75, as expected, and the Fed says it’s starting to see hints of slowing, the market might take that as a positive,” Schleif said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 228.5 points, or 0.71%, to 31,761.54, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 45.79 points, or 1.15%, to 3,921.05 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 220.09 points, or 1.87%, to 11,562.58. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed down 0.03% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.92%.

Adding to Tuesday’s gloom was the International Monetary Fund forecast for global real GDP growth of 3.2% in 2022, down from its 3.6% forecast issued in April, with downside risks from high inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine potentially pushing the world economy to the brink of recession.

The gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes widened on Tuesday after more than two weeks when the short-end yield has been higher than the long end – often a recession signal.

Benchmark 10-year notes last rose 5/32 in price to yield 2.8032%, from 2.82% late on Monday. The 30-year bond last rose 17/32 in price to yield 3.0227%, from 3.05%. The 2-year note last fell 2/32 in price to yield 3.0609%, from 3.035%.

“The flight to quality makes sense if you’re concerned about a meaningful slowdown in growth or even heightened recession fears in Europe because of volatility in energy supply,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale. “Then you should see investors flock to Treasuries.”

The dollar index rose 0.752%, with the euro down 1.04% to $1.0114. The Japanese yen weakened 0.15% versus the greenback at 136.90 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.2027, down 0.12% on the day.

After rising earlier in the session, oil prices settled in the red as investors worried about weaker consumer confidence and the expectation that another 20 million barrels of crude oil would be released from the U.S Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Prices were supported earlier in the session on news that Russia was tightening its gas squeeze on Europe. U.S. crude settled down 1.78% at $94.98 per barrel and Brent settled at $104.40, down 0.71%.

Spot gold dropped 0.1% to $1,716.98 an ounce as investors eyed economic uncertainties and waited on the Fed. Bitcoin last fell 1.86% to $20,910.08.

Additional reporting by Herbert Lash in New York, Kane Wu in Hong Kong; Editing by Edmund Klamann, Angus MacSwan, Will Dunham and Mark Heinrich

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Bitcoin recovers after falling on news Tesla sold 75% of its holdings

NEW YORK, July 20 (Reuters) – Bitcoin rebounded after a brief sell-off late on Wednesday sparked by news that electric carmaker Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) had sold about 75% of its holdings of the virtual token.

Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk cited concerns about his company’s “overall liquidity” as the reason for the sale.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last up 1.04% at $23,494.57, after sliding as much as 0.5% to $23,268.92 on the news. Tesla sold $936 million worth of bitcoin in the second quarter, more than a year after the company bought $1.5 billion of the cryptocurrency at the peak of its massive growth and popularity.

Musk has been an outspoken supporter of cryptocurrencies. His statements on the future of crypto and disclosures about his ownership of digital assets often boost the price of dogecoin and bitcoin. On Tesla’s earnings call, Musk said the primary reason for the sale was uncertainty about lockdowns due to COVID-19 in China, which have created production challenges for the company.

“It was important for us to maximize our cash position,” Musk said. “We are certainly open to increasing our bitcoin holdings in future, so this should not be taken as some verdict on bitcoin. It’s just that we were concerned about overall liquidity for the company.”

Musk added that Tesla did not sell any of its dogecoin, a meme-based cryptocurrency that he has touted. Tesla accepted bitcoin as payment for less than two months before stopping in May 2021. Musk has said the company could resume accepting bitcoin once it conducts due diligence on the amount of renewable energy it takes to mine the currency.

Bitcoin has been in recovery mode so far this week, in line with the stock market, as investors appear more optimistic about the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ability to rein in decades-high inflation.

Reporting by Hannah Lang, Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Nivedita Balu; Editing by Marguerita Choy, Richard Pullin and Richard Chang

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Aussie ascendant before RBA; yen pressured by rising U.S. yields

TOKYO, (Reuters) – The Australian dollar ticked higher on Tuesday ahead of an expected half-point increase in the Reserve Bank’s policy rate, while the yen slid against the greenback amid a rise in U.S. Treasury yields.

The Aussie and New Zealand dollars were also supported by signs that the United States might soon ease tariffs on key trading partner China. Australia’s currency climbed 0.29% to $0.6888, while New Zealand’s kiwi rose 0.21% to $0.6222.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar was up 0.35% at 136.165 yen , gaining support from a strong rebound in the 10-year Treasury yield , which jumped to 2.9780% in Tokyo on Tuesday from the lowest since May at 2.7910% on Friday.

There was no trading in Treasuries on Monday, with U.S. markets closed for the Fourth of July holiday, which also resulted in thin currency-market trading.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday will deliver another half-percentage-point rise in interest rates as it fights to tame inflation at two-decade highs, matching the increase it delivered last month in a hawkish surprise. read more

The Aussie was also supported by a Wall Street Journal report that the White House would announce an easing of some Chinese tariffs later this week in an attempt to dampen elevated inflation, analysts said.

The dollar index , which measures the buck against six major peers, including the yen, was about flat at 105.13 after finishing Monday largely unchanged. On Friday, it rose as high as 105.64, threatening the two-decade peak of 105.79 reached in mid-June.

The euro , which is the most heavily weighted in the index, rose 0.13% to $1.0435 after ending Monday about flat. Over the past two months, it has been bumping against a floor around $1.035, levels not seen since the beginning of 2017.

The euro got support overnight from a bump in regional yields after Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel said the very accommodative stance of the European Central Bank (ECB) would “swiftly be abandoned” and a restrictive policy stance might be needed to achieve the inflation target.

The ECB is gearing up to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade later this month. The policy outlook may not sustain the euro longer term though, National Australia Bank markets economist Tapas Strickland wrote in a note to clients.

“Europe remains stuck in the middle between the Russia-Ukraine crisis and a weakening global economy,” he said. “Given Europe’s dire predicament, it is hard to see an enduring euro rally, which may keep USD strength going for longer.”

Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Bradley Perrett

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Oil dips, snapping three-day win streak as recession fears weigh

WED, JUN 29 2022- Oil prices declined on Wednesday with tight supply worries not enough to outweigh concerns about a weaker global economy.

Brent crude futures for August settled 1.46% lower at $116.26. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled 1.77% lower at $109.78.

Both contracts rose more than 2% on Tuesday as concerns over tight supplies due to Western sanctions on Russia outweighed fears of that demand may slow in a potential future recession.

“The market is stuck in the push-pull between the current deteriorating macro backdrop and the looming threat of a recession, pitted against the strongest fundamental oil market set-up in decades, maybe ever,” RBC Capital’s Mike Tran said in a note.

Dan Yergin explains why crude prices are falling Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been seen as the only two members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with spare capacity to make up for lost Russian supply.

French President Emmanuel Macron said this week he was told these producers will struggle to increase output further.

“Investors made position adjustments, but remained bullish on expectations that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would not be able to raise output significantly to meet recovering demand, driven by a pick-up in jet fuels,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at Nissan Securities.

OPEC and OPEC+, which includes allies such as Russia, begin a series of two-day meetings on Wednesday with sources saying chances of a big policy change look unlikely this month.

“Oil prices will likely stay above $110 a barrel, also on worries of potential supply disruptions due to hurricanes as the United States enters the summer,” he said.

Analysts also warned that political unrest in Ecuador and Libya could tighten supply further.

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Wall Street stumbles as consumer pessimism stokes growth fears

NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) – Wall Street closed sharply lower in a broad sell-off on Tuesday as dire consumer confidence data dampened investor optimism and fueled worries over recession and the looming earnings season.

The S&P and the Nasdaq fell about 2% and 3% respectively, with Apple Inc (AAPL.O), Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and Amazon.com (AMZN.O) weighing the heaviest. The blue-chip Dow shed about 1.6%.

“Markets were fine today until the consumer confidence number came out,” said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia. “It was weak and markets immediately began selling off.”

With the end of the month and the second quarter two days away, the benchmark S&P 500 is on track for its biggest first-half percentage drop since 1970. All three indexes are on course to notch two straight quarterly declines for the first time since 2015.

“At some point this aggressive selling is going to dissipate but it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be anytime soon,” said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist Ingalls & Snyder in New York.

Data released on Tuesday morning showed the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropping to the lowest it has been since February 2021, with near-term expectations reaching its most pessimistic level in nearly a decade. read more

The growing gap between the Conference Board’s “current situation” and “expectations” components have widened to levels that often precede recession:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 491.27 points, or 1.56%, to 30,946.99, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 78.56 points, or 2.01%, to 3,821.55 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 343.01 points, or 2.98%, to 11,181.54.

Ten of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 ended the session in negative territory, with consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) suffering the largest percentage loss. Energy (.SPNY) was the sole gainer, benefiting from rising crude prices .

With few market catalysts and market participants gearing up for the July Fourth holiday weekend, the day’s sell-off cannot be blamed entirely on the Consumer Confidence report, said Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

“It’s hard to attribute (market volatility) to one economic data point with so much noise around portfolio rebalancing at quarter-end,” Hainlin said.

“There’s not a lot of new information out there and yet you see this volatile stock environment,” he said, adding that there will not be much new information until companies start earnings.

With several weeks to go until second-quarter reporting commences, 130 S&P 500 companies have pre-announced. Of those, 45 have been positive and 77 have been negative, resulting in a negative/positive ratio of 1.7 stronger than the first quarter but weaker than a year ago, according to Refinitiv data.

Nike Inc (NKE.N) slid 7.0% following its lower than expected revenue forecast. Shares of Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY.N) advanced 4.8% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) raised its stake in the company.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.28-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.70-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted one new 52-week high and 29 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 29 new highs and 131 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.54 billion shares, compared with the 12.99 billion average over the last 20 trading days.

Reporting by Stephen Culp; Additional reporting by Sinead Carew and Caroline Valetkevitch in New York, Shreyashi Sanyal and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; editing by Grant McCool

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G7 aims to raise $600 billion to counter China’s Belt and Road

SCHLOSS ELMAU, Germany, (Reuters) – Group of Seven leaders on Sunday pledged to raise $600 billion in private and public funds over five years to finance needed infrastructure in developing countries and counter China’s older, multitrillion-dollar Belt and Road project.

U.S. President Joe Biden and other G7 leaders relaunched the newly renamed “Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment,” at their annual gathering being held this year at Schloss Elmau in southern Germany.

Biden said the United States would mobilize $200 billion in grants, federal funds and private investment over five years to support projects in low- and middle-income countries that help tackle climate change as well as improve global health, gender equity and digital infrastructure.

“I want to be clear. This isn’t aid or charity. It’s an investment that will deliver returns for everyone,” Biden said, adding that it would allow countries to “see the concrete benefits of partnering with democracies.”

Biden said hundreds of billions of additional dollars could come from multilateral development banks, development finance institutions, sovereign wealth funds and others.

Europe will mobilize 300 billion euros for the initiative over the same period to build up a sustainable alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative scheme, which Chinese President Xi Jinping launched in 2013, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the gathering.

The leaders of Italy, Canada and Japan also spoke about their plans, some of which have already been announced separately. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson were not present, but their countries are also participating.

China’s investment scheme involves development and programs in over 100 countries aimed at creating a modern version of the ancient Silk Road trade route from Asia to Europe.

White House officials said the plan has provided little tangible benefit for many developing countries.

Biden highlighted several flagship projects, including a $2 billion solar development project in Angola with support from the Commerce Department, the U.S. Export-Import Bank, U.S. firm AfricaGlobal Schaffer, and U.S. project developer Sun Africa.

Together with G7 members and the EU, Washington will also provide $3.3 million in technical assistance to Institut Pasteur de Dakar in Senegal as it develops an industrial-scale flexible multi-vaccine manufacturing facility in that country that can eventually produce COVID-19 and other vaccines, a project that also involves the EU.

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) will also commit up to $50 million over five years to the World Bank’s global Childcare Incentive Fund.

Friederike Roder, vice president of the non-profit group Global Citizen, said the pledges of investment could be “a good start” toward greater engagement by G7 countries in developing nations and could underpin stronger global growth for all.

G7 countries on average provide only 0.32% of their gross national income, less than half of the 0.7% promised, in development assistance, she said.

“But without developing countries, there will be no sustainable recovery of the world economy,” she said.

Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Mark Porter and Lisa Shumaker

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China keeps lending benchmarks unchanged, wary of policy divergence risks

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China stood pat on its benchmark lending rates for corporate and household loans, as expected, on Monday, with global central banks’ rate increases making it tough for Beijing to stimulate a weak domestic economy by lowering rates.

Markets widely believe that Chinese policymakers are wary of risks that the yuan will depreciate and capital outflows will be triggered if they embark on further monetary easing to underpin a COVID-19-hit economy at a time when other major economies are tightening their rates policies. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.70%, and the five-year LPR was unchanged at 4.45%.

“Perhaps there is some reluctance in loosening monetary policy to support economic activity, which could reflect some caution in moving in the opposite direction to other central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. “It seems a matter of time, however, before there are larger liquidity injections and measures to boost credit.”

Central banks across Europe raised interest rates last week, some by a level that shocked markets, in the wake of the Fed’s 75 basis point hike to combat high inflation.

“While the PBOC has little to fear from a weaker currency – the renminbi remains extremely strong – the last thing it wants is to have to defend against a sharp, potentially destabilising sell-off,” economists at Capital Economics said in a note earlier. “That could plausibly happen if it lowered rates now when almost every other major central bank has turned much more hawkish.”

Divergent Sino-U.S. policies have wiped out China’s yield advantage in April, triggering a record monthly tumble in the yuan . And a deeper inversion of U.S. and Chinese government-bond yields , could revive such depreciation pressure on the Chinese currency.

About 90% of traders and analysts in a Reuters survey last week expected China to keep both rates unchanged. China lowered the five-year LPR, the benchmark reference rate for mortgages, by an unexpectedly wide margin last month, in a bid to revive the ailing housing sector to prop up the economy.

Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR. The five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages.

Reporting by Winni Zhou and Brenda Goh; Editing by Kim Coghill and Muralikumar Anantharaman

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China investment curbs gain momentum in U.S. lawmaker talks

WASHINGTON – A bipartisan group of lawmakers said on Monday they have agreed on a proposal that would give the U.S. government sweeping new powers to block billions in U.S. investment into China, although the measure is part of a broader bill with an uncertain future.

The provision is part of broadbased legislation to boost U.S. competitiveness with China and also grant $52 billion to chipmakers to expand U.S. operations.

“The refined proposal released today has bipartisan, bicameral support and addresses industry concerns, including the scope of prospective activities, industries covered, and the prevention of duplicative authorities,” said U.S. Senators Bob Casey and John Cornyn, and Representatives Rosa DeLauro, Bill Pascrell, Jr., Michael McCaul, Brian Fitzpatrick and Victoria Spartz, in a statement.

The initial “outbound investment” proposal had run into opposition on the fear it could reduce companies’ investments abroad, leading some chipmakers to oppose its inclusion in the chips bill being hammered out by Senate and House lawmakers.

Democratic Senator Mark Warner told Reuters on Monday the “the clock is ticking” on the broader chips bill and said there were “a lot of conversations” about pivoting to a bill that would only focus on subsidies for plants to make chips, potentially dropping trade provisions and other measures aimed helping the U.S. compete with China in science, business and technology.

The outbound investment measure was originally proposed as a standalone bill by Cornyn and Casey, but was later added to the House version of a massive bill that includes the grants for chipmakers and is aimed at countering China’s rise.

The draft legislation, which would capture fewer investments than the original version, stirred opposition from critics who said it would harm American competitiveness. The US-China Business Council said about the new draft, “If such government controls were implemented on a unilateral basis, it would only hurt the flexibility and resilience of American companies.”

The draft says a new investment committee would engage with allies to coordinate and share information. The legislation is intended to give the U.S. government greater visibility into U.S. investments. It will be mandatory to notify the government of investments that may fall under the new regulations, and the U.S. can use existing authorities to stop investments, or mitigate risk. If no action is taken, the investment can move forward.

The concept behind the measure has support within the Biden administration. U.S. President Joe Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan said in July the government was working on new investment screening and considering outbound investment as it seeks to better position the United States for competition in technology.

A study by Rhodium said 43% of U.S. foreign direct investment transactions in China over the past two decades could have been subject to screening under the broad categories set out by the original proposal.

Reporting by Alexandra Alper and David Shepardson in Washington; Karen Freifeld in New York; Editing by Nick Zieminski, David Gregorio and Richard Pullin

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Oil extends gains on robust U.S. demand, China optimism

SINGAPORE, June 9 (Reuters) – Oil prices extended gains on Thursday, underpinned by robust demand in the world’s top consumer United States while demand is expected to rebound in China as COVID-19 curbs across major cities are relaxed.

Brent crude futures for August rose 50 cents, or 0.4%, to $124.08 a barrel by 0153 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for July was at $122.49 a barrel, up 38 cents, or 0.3%.

Both benchmarks closed Wednesday at their highest since March 8, matching levels seen in 2008. The United States posted a record fall in strategic crude reserves even as commercial stocks rose last week, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday.

U.S. gasoline stocks unexpectedly dropped, indicating resilience in demand for the motor fuel during peak summer despite sky-high pump prices.

“It’s hard to see significant downside in the coming months, with the gasoline market likely to only tighten further as we move deeper into driving season,” ING’s head of commodities research Warren Patterson said.

EIA’s data showed that apparent demand for all oil products in the United States rose to 19.5 million barrels per day (bpd) while gasoline demand rose to 8.98 million bpd, ANZ analysts said in a note.

“China’s reopening continued to boost the demand optimism,” CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said in a note. “The oil price could be heading to the peak of March at above $130 on a very tight supply market.”

Efforts by OPEC+ oil producers to boost output are “not encouraging”, UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on Wednesday, noting the group was currently 2.6 million bpd short of its target.

Last week, the group agreed to accelerate production increase to tame runaway fuel prices and slow inflation. But the move will leave producers with very little spare capacity, and almost no room to compensate for a major supply outage.

Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Shri Navaratnam

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Stocks gain on improved sentiment, crude at $120

NEW YORK, Reuters – Global equity markets rose on Monday on signs of an easing of COVID-19 pandemic-related and other restrictions by China and as investors took expected interest rate hikes in coming days in their stride despite crude oil hitting $120 a barrel.

The dollar gained against the euro ahead of a European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday but risk appetite ebbed after being higher earlier on the day. Sterling rose ahead of a confidence vote in Parliament that Prime Minister Boris Johnson won, but a rebellion by 148 of his 359 Conservative Party lawmakers dealt a serious blow to his authority.

A Wall Street Journal report that Chinese regulators are concluding probes into ride-hailing giant Didi Global Inc , as well as the easing of domestic pandemic-related curbs, have bolstered sentiment, said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.

“You’ve got the world’s second-largest economy continuing to open up,” Chandler said, referring to China. “It looks like Didi may be available again at the mobile app stores and Beijing opened up public transportation.”

Didi shares closed up 24.3% after earlier surging more than 50% on the Journal report. The news earlier helped Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tech index close 4.6% higher. Sentiment also was aided by comments by U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo that President Joe Biden has asked his team to look at the option of lifting some tariffs on Chinese imports. read more

People no longer speculate that the Federal Reserve might hike interest rates by 75 basis points and have backtracked a bit from a 50 basis-point hike in September, which also has boosted sentiment, Chandler said.

The major U.S. stock indexes rose, as did the big bourses for Britain (.FTSE), Germany (.GDAXI), France (.FCHI), Italy (.FTMIB) and Spain (.IBEX), all closing up 1% or higher. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.92% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.35%.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 0.08% after briefly dipping lower. The S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 0.20% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 0.25%. Growth shares (.IGX) rose 0.3%, or more than double the 0.1% advance in value stocks.

U.S. Treasury yields rose as the market prepared for the sale of $96 billion in debt this week and ahead of data on Friday expected to show U.S. inflation is still running hot.

The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to have gained 0.7% last month, compared with 0.3% in April, with annual inflation unchanged at 8.3%, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters.

The three U.S. debt auctions this week are likely to push yields higher as banks and investors prepare to absorb the issuance. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 8.5 basis points at 3.040%, the first time the benchmark’s yields have topped 3% in almost three weeks.

At the ECB meeting on Thursday, President Christine Lagarde is considered certain to confirm an end to bond-buying this month and a first rate increase in July, though the jury is out on whether that will be 25 or 50 bps, as some investment banks ramped up their expectations. Money markets are priced for 130 bps of rate increases by year-end, with a 50 bps move at a single meeting fully priced in by October.

A high number would only add to expectations of aggressive tightening by the Fed next week, with markets already priced for half-point increases in June and July and almost 200 basis points (bps) by the end of the year.

The dollar index rose 0.274%, with the euro down 0.23% at $1.0694. The yen weakened 0.73% at $131.85 and sterling rose 0.32% at $1.2528. Oil prices were largely unchanged in choppy trade, buoyed by Saudi Arabia raising its July crude prices but amid doubts that a higher output target for OPEC+ producers would ease tight supply.

U.S. crude futures settled down 37 cents at $118.50 a barrel and Brent fell 21 cents to settle at $119.51. Gold prices slid, pressured by an uptick in the dollar and Treasury yields. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.4% at $1,843.70 an ounce.

Reporting by Herbert Lash in New York Additional reporting by Huw Jones in London Editing by John Stonestreet, Will Dunham and Matthew Lewis