(RTTNews) – European stocks may see a tepid start on Wednesday as geopolitical tensions rattle financial markets.

Investors got jittery as a Russian strike on Poland raised fears the nine-month Ukraine war could escalate.

The White House said it could not confirm the reports and was working with the Polish government to gather more information.

Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy decried the strike as a very significant escalation of the war.

Russia denied the allegations and dismissed the reports as “a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation”.

Asian markets fell broadly, but the downside remained capped after a meeting between the presidents of the world’s two largest economies ended with a positive outcome.

The U.S. dollar rose on safe-haven demand and gold steadied near a three-month high, while oil prices fell as China reported 19,609 cases for Tuesday, the highest since late April when financial hub Shanghai was in the midst of a two-month lockdown.

Trading later in the day may be impacted by reaction to a speech from ECB’s Lagarde and U.S. reports on retail sales and industrial production.

U.S. stocks ended higher overnight, as Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard’s comments and weak producer price inflation data added to hopes of smaller Fed rate rises.

Walmart’s strong results also brought some cheer, but stocks pulled back well off their best levels of the day following reports that Russian missiles had landed in NATO-member Poland, killing two people.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.5 percent to a nearly two-month closing high, the S&P 500 gained 0.9 percent and the Dow 0.2 percent.

European stocks rose for the fourth day on Tuesday amid signs of easing U.S.-China tensions.

The pan European STOXX 600 rose 0.4 percent. The German DAX and France’s CAC 40 index both added around half a percent while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.2 percent.

NEW YORK: Wall Street’s main indexes gained on Tuesday, shaking off an unconfirmed report of Russian missiles crossing into Poland that sparked volatility, as investors seized on softer-than-expected inflation data that raised hopes of a pullback in rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve.

Equities were boosted by Tuesday’s inflation report that showed producer prices rising 8% in the 12 months through October against an estimated 8.3% rise.

The gains built on a rally that was kicked off late last week by a cooler-than-expected report on consumer prices.

“The market has been driven by the inflation number that came out a little bit lower than expected and confirmed last week’s number to some degree that we may have rounded the corner on inflation,” said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.

The market was “a little bit more volatile this afternoon as news stories came out about the Russian missile landing in Poland,” Tuz said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 56.22 points, or 0.17%, to 33,592.92, the S&P 500 gained 34.48 points, or 0.87%, to 3,991.73 and the Nasdaq Composite added 162.19 points, or 1.45%, to 11,358.41.

Two people were killed in an explosion in Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland near the border with Ukraine, firefighters said as NATO allies investigated reports that the blast resulted from Russian missiles.

The Associated Press earlier cited a senior US intelligence official as saying the blast was due to Russian missiles crossing into Poland. But the Pentagon said it could not confirm that account.

Stocks pulled back around mid-day after the report, with the Dow turning negative, before they steadied.

“The decline was triggered by reports of a Russian missile landing in Poland,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “This could develop into something far worse, but right now markets are nervous, not panicked.”

Shares of Walmart Inc jumped 6.5% after the top US retailer lifted its annual sales and profit forecasts, benefiting from a steady demand for groceries despite higher prices.

Shares of other retailers, including Target Corp and Costco, also rose following Walmart’s report. Target, which is due to report on Wednesday, rose 3.9%, while Costco gained 3.3%.

Home Depot shares rose 1.6% after the home improvement chain’s results showed it tapped higher prices to override a drop in customer transactions for the third quarter.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.25-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.01-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

The S&P 500 posted 5 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 85 new highs and 76 new lows.

About 13.1 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 12.2 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions. — Reuters

By Lewis Krauskopf, Ankika Biswas and Amruta Khandekar

(Reuters) – Wall Street’s main indexes ended lower on Monday, with real estate and discretionary sectors leading broad declines, as investors digested comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials about plans for interest rate hikes and looked for next catalysts after last week’s big stock market rally.

Losses accelerated toward the end of the up-and-down session, with focus turning to Tuesday’s producer price index report and markets highly sensitive to inflation data.

Earlier on Monday, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard signaled that the central bank would will likely soon slow its interest rates hikes. Her comments somewhat buoyed sentiment for equities that had been dampened after Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller on Sunday said the Fed may consider slowing the pace of increases at its next meeting but that should not be seen as a “softening” in its commitment to lower inflation.

A massive equity rally late last week was set off by a softer-than-expected inflation report that boosted investor hopes the Fed could dial back on its monetary tightening that has punished markets this year.

“There is still a sensitivity to Fed speak… One was a little hawkish, one was a little dovish,” said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management Corp.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 211.16 points, or 0.63%, to 33,536.7, the S&P 500 lost 35.68 points, or 0.89%, to 3,957.25 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 127.11 points, or 1.12%, to 11,196.22.

The S&P 500 last week posted its biggest weekly percentage gain since late June, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq notched its best week since March.

More Fed officials are due to speak later this week along with a slew of data, including on retail sales and housing, and earnings reports from major retailers.

“It just makes sense the market wants to pause and really both try to make sense of the trajectory (of Fed policy) and what the next drivers are going to be,” said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management.

Among S&P 500 sectors, real estate fell 2.7%, consumer discretionary dropped 1.7% and financials declined 1.5%.

In company news, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) shares fell 2.3% as The New York Times on Monday reported the company was planning to lay off about 10,000 people in corporate and technology jobs starting as soon as this week.

Shares of Biogen Inc (NASDAQ:BIIB) and Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) gained 3.3% and 1.3%, respectively, after the failure of Swiss rival Roche’s Alzheimer’s disease drug candidate.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.23-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.61-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 15 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 72 new highs and 74 new lows.

About 11.5 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 12.1 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.

Investing.com — The Dow struggled for direction, but ended Monday in the red as investors digested remarks from the Federal Reserve officials insisting further rate hikes were ahead, albeit at a slower pace, as the fight against inflation was far from over.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, or 211 points, and the Nasdaq was 1.1% lower.

Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said Monday that it probably would be “appropriate soon to move to a slower pace of increases,” though added that there still was “additional work to do on raising rates.”

The remarks arrived after Fed Governor Christopher Waller pushed back against investor bets on a pause on rate hikes, insisting that monetary policy tightening “isn’t ending in the next meeting or two.”

Health care, a defensive corner of the market, ended the day just above the flatline, with Moderna and Biogen leading to the upside.

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) jumped more than 4% after reporting that its new COVID-19 boosters provided increased protection against Omicron subvariants than its original formula.

Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) advanced more than 3% on news that Roche’s Alzheimer’s drug candidate failed to show evidence of slowing dementia progression in two drug trials.

Tech, meanwhile, was mostly lower, pressured by a more than 2% decline in Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT). Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) bucked the trend, however, rising more than 1%.

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) reversed some early-day gains but ended up 1% higher after receiving an upgrade from Baird and UBS.

UBS upgraded AMD to outperform from neutral and lifted its price target on the stock to $95 from $75, on expectations that demand for chips is set to resume as the glut in chip inventories is nearing a peak.

Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) fell more than 2% as the e-commerce giant reportedly plans to lay off about 10,000 employees as soon as this week.

Energy stocks shrugged off a slump in oil prices after OPEC cut its estimate on global oil demand amid a weaker global economic backdrop.

Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) and Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) led the gains in the sector.

On the earnings front, oat-based drinks maker Oatly (NASDAQ:OTLY) reported a larger-than-expected quarterly loss as revenue fell short of Wall Street estimates, sending its shares more than 12% lower.

In cryptocurrency-related news, Binance, the world’s largest exchange by trading volume, said it would launch a recovery fund to cash-strapped crypto companies starved of liquidity in the wake of the collapse of FTX. 

SYDNEY, Nov 14 (Reuters) – Asian share markets were mixed on Monday as a top U.S. central banker warned investors against getting carried away over one inflation number, while Chinese stocks gained on signs of aid for the country’s hard-hit property sector.

A modest miss on U.S. inflation was enough to see two-year Treasury yields dive 33 basis points for the week and the dollar lose almost 4% – the fourth biggest weekly decline since the era of free-floating exchange rates began over 50 years ago.

However, the resulting easing in U.S. financial conditions was not entirely welcomed by the Federal Reserve, with Governor Christopher Waller saying it would take a string of soft reports for the bank to take its foot off the brakes.

Waller added the markets were well ahead of themselves on just one inflation print, though he did concede the Fed could now start thinking about hiking at a slower pace.

Futures are wagering heavily on a half-point rate rise to 4.25-4.5% in December, and then a couple of quarter-point moves to a peak in the 4.75-5.0% range.

Two-year yields edged up to 4.42%, after diving as deep as 4.29% on Friday.

“The CPI downside surprise aligns with a broad range of indicators pointing to a downshift in global inflation that should encourage a moderation in the pace of monetary policy tightening at the Fed and elsewhere,” said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan.

“This positive message needs be tempered by the recognition that downshift in inflation will be too little for central banks to declare mission-accomplished, and more tightening is likely on the way.”

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 1.1%, after jumping 7.7% last week.

Japan’s Nikkei eased 0.8%, while South Korea went flat. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.3% and Nasdaq futures lost 0.5%.

EUROSTOXX 50 futures gained 0.4%, while FTSE futures tacked on 0.1%.

EYES ON CHINA

Dealers were also waiting to see if Chinese stocks could extend their big rally amid reports regulators have asked financial institutions to extend more support to stressed property developers. China’s real estate index jumped 5% in response. Blue chips rose 1.1%, helped by a slew of changes to China’s COVID curbs, even as the country reported more cases over the weekend.

“It’s hard to see how the case news is anything but negative from an economic standpoint, but it’s the symbolism of the movement, however small, in the zero COVID strategy that markets are happily latching onto,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB.

U.S. President Joe Biden will meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in person on Monday for the first time since taking office, with U.S. concerns over Taiwan, Russia’s war in Ukraine and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions on top of his agenda.

The news on COVID rules had stoked a short-covering bounce in the yuan, which added to broad pressure on the dollar as yields dived. The yuan was set 1.4% firmer on Monday – the largest such move since 2005.

The dollar index was up a fraction on Monday at 106.920 , but still well short of last week’s 111.280 top.

The euro eased a touch to $1.0308, after climbing 3.9% last week, while the dollar firmed to 139.49 yen following last week’s 5.4% drubbing.

The dollar lost almost as much to the Swiss franc, steered in part by warnings from the Swiss National Bank that it would use rates and currency purchases to tame inflation.

Sterling eased back to $1.1755 ahead of the British Chancellor’s Autumn Statement on Thursday, where he is expected to set out tax rises and spending cuts.

Crypto currencies remained under pressure as at least $1 billion of customer funds were reported to have vanished from collapsed crypto exchange FTX.

Bitcoin was trading down 1.5% at $16,055, having shed almost 22% last week.

The dollar’s recent retreat provided a much-needed fillip to commodities, with gold holding at $1,760 an ounce after jumping more than $100 last week.

Oil futures extended their gains on hopes for a pick-up in Chinese demand, with Brent up 28 cents at $96.27 while U.S. crude rose 20 cents to $89.16 per barrel.

(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Kenneth Maxwell)

WASHINGTON, Nov. 13 (Reuters) - The US Federal Reserve may consider slowing the pace of interest rate hikes at its next meeting but could not be seen as a "softening" in its commitment to lowering inflation, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Sunday.

Markets must now pay attention to the "end point" of rising interest rates, not the speed of each move, and that end point is likely "a long way off," Waller said in response to a barrage of questions about monetary policy at an organized economics conference. by UBS in Australia. "It depends on inflation."

"We're at a point where we can start to think maybe going to a slower pace," said Waller, but "we're not easing down... Stop paying attention to speed and start paying attention to where the end point is going to be. Until we drop inflation, that endpoint is still out there."

A report released last week showing slower-than-expected inflation in October was "good news," but "just one data point" must be followed by other similar readings to show conclusively that inflation is slowing, he said.

The 7.7% annualized increase in inflation recorded in October is still "a huge one," Waller said, noting that even if the Fed reduced the three-quarter-point hike to half a point at its next meeting, "you're still going up." "We need to see a continuation of this kind of behavior and inflation slowly starting to come down before we really start to think about taking our foot off the brakes," Waller said, adding that he was growing more confident in the Fed. is on the right track as its rate increase has so far not "ruined anything".

The Fed has raised interest rates by 3.75 proportion points this year starting in March, including four three-quarter point hikes, a swift shift in monetary policy aimed at cooling a wave of inflation that has weakened since the 1980s. "For all the talk about destroying the economy and destroying financial markets. It just doesn't work," Waller said. Analysts and economists have argued that monetary tightening will increase the risk of a recession, impacting employment. US Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown last month urged the Federal Reserve to exercise caution in implementing monetary policy so that millions of Americans already suffering from high inflation will also lose their jobs.

NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 7 (Reuters) – Equity markets rose and the dollar slid on Monday as investors embraced the idea that China may ease COVID restrictions and burnished hopes the U.S. economy is slowing enough to allow the Federal Reserve to ease its aggressive hiking of interest rates.

Markets looked past both data showing Chinese exports and imports unexpectedly contracted in October as China grapples with COVID-19 curbs and the likelihood the U.S. consumer price index on Thursday will show inflation remains high.

U.S. stocks rallied as investors weighed the outcome of Tuesday’s mid-term elections. Voting will determine whether the Republicans are strong enough to take over Congress and likely underline the difficult prospects for Democrats.

“On a day-to-day basis the market focuses on the headlines and what’s coming up immediately ahead of us, and that’s the elections,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “What might or might not happen with the election is not that big of an influence on the market. The big influences are the Fed, and what’s happening in Ukraine and Russia,” he said.

BOJ debated impact of future exit from easy policy in Oct meeting
The major indices in Europe mostly closed higher, with the exception of the FTSE 100 (.FTSE) in London, while Wall Street rallied in late trading after a choppy early session.

MSCI’s all-country world index (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 1.14%, and the broad pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.33%. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 1.31%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 0.96% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) advanced 0.85%.

While a divided Congress is typically viewed as good for markets, the hope the U.S. economy is losing enough momentum for the Fed to slow the pace of monetary tightening pushed the dollar lower, said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington.

“The market is really desperate for the Fed to pivot,” Manimbo said. “It will take anything it can get in terms of signs of a softening economy to hold out hope that a pivot might materialize sooner rather than later,” he said.

Slower inflation on the heels of signs in Friday’s U.S. employment report for October showing that the labor market is cooling would be positive for risk appetite and negative, at least over the short term, for the dollar, Manimbo said.

The euro rose 0.61% to $1.0021 and the Japanese yen strengthened 0.01% against the dollar at 146.60. The dollar also was under pressure as traders held on to speculation that China could temper some of its COVID restrictions after the government on Monday indicated it will make it easier for people to enter and exit the capital.

Stephane Ekolo, strategist at Tradition in London, said the market is looking for an excuse to buy stocks. “In spite of China sticking to its zero-COVID pledge, there are some in the market that still believe that China might somewhat ease its COVID-19 policy,” Ekolo said.

The relatively strong U.S. jobs report last week ensured the Fed will be in no rush to ease policy, though the pace of rate hikes may slow as the U.S. central banks keeps rates higher for longer, a view that pressured Treasury yields higher.

Median forecasts call for annual U.S. inflation to slow to 8.0% and for the core to dip a tick to 6.5%. The yield on two-year notes , which typically moves in step with rate expectations, rose 7 basis points at 4.722%, while the 10-year yield was up 6 basis points at 4.218%.

A closely watched part of the yield curve measuring the spread between yields on two- and 10-year notes , seen as a recession harbinger when the short end is higher than the long end, was deeply inverted at -50.6 basis points.

Oil prices rose to more than a two-month high on news that China, the world’s top crude importer, could take steps toward reopening after years of strict COVID restrictions, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources.

U.S. crude fell 82 cents to settle at $91.79 a barrel, while Brent settled down 65 cents at $97.92 a barrel. Gold prices steadied near a three-week peak hit on Friday, buoyed by a weaker dollar as investors awaited the CPI report that could influence the Fed’s interest rate policy. U.S. gold futures > settled up 0.2% to $1,680.50 an ounce. Bitcoin fell 0.55% to $20,791.00.

Additional reporting by Stefano Rebaudo in Milan and Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Ed Osmond, Tomasz Janowski, Chizu Nomiyama and Richard Chang

SYDNEY, Nov 7 (Reuters) – U.S. stock futures slipped in Asia on Monday after Beijing denied it was considering easing its zero COVID-19 policy, helping the dollar recover some losses while dealing a setback to oil and commodities.

Risk assets had rallied on Friday amid speculation China was preparing to relax its pandemic restrictions, but over the weekend health officials reiterated their commitment to the “dynamic-clearing” approach to COVID cases as soon as they emerge.

“Despite the denial, notions that China will pivot to living with COVID in the new year are unlikely to be quashed given the very real toll that zero-COVID is having on the economy,” said Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at NAB.

“With China going into winter, most analysts think a change in zero-COVID is unlikely until at least March.”

Speculation that China might open its economy saw copper jump 7% on Friday in its biggest one-day rally since 2009, while a range of resources all benefited from hopes of increased demand. It also sent the yuan surging and triggered a round of profit taking on long U.S. dollar positions, particularly against commodity sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar.

A little of that reversed on Monday, with the Aussie down 0.4% at $0.6440 after jumping 3% on Friday. The dollar gained 0.9% on the offshore yuan . The U.S. dollar index bounced 0.4% having dived almost 2% at the end of last week. The dollar was just a shade former on the yen at 146.77 yen , while the euro eased a fraction to $0.9944 .

S&P 500 futures turned tail and fell 0.5%, while Nasdaq futures lost 0.6%. Illustrating the costs of Beijing’s strict policies, Apple Inc (AAPL.O) on Sunday said it expects lower iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone Pro Max shipments than previously anticipated as COVID-19 restrictions temporarily disrupt production. read more

Still, investors seemed to hope there might be something to the China loosening story and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.3%. Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.6% and South Korea (.KS11) 0.3%. Markets are now waiting on Chinese trade data due later in the session for a guide on global demand.

Aiding risk sentiment at the margin were reports the White House is privately encouraging Ukraine to signal an openness to negotiate with Russia. Dealers were still digesting a mixed U.S jobs report which showed solid gains in the payrolls survey but softness in the less reliable household survey of unemployment.

Four Federal Reserve policymakers on Friday indicated they would still consider a smaller interest rate hike at their next policy meeting, sounding less hawkish than Chair Jerome Powell. There are at least seven Fed officials scheduled to speak this week, which will help refine the rate outlook with markets now narrowly leaning toward a half-point rate hike next month to 4.25-4.5%.

“We maintain the Fed will see sufficient progress on inflation to pause at 4.75% in February, but the risks are skewed to more hikes that likely bring about a recession sometime later in 2023 or early 2024,” said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan. Short-term Treasuries managed a minor rally on Friday with two-year yields edging back to 4.68% and off highs not seen since 2007.

The market faces a major hurdle on Thursday when U.S. consumer prices for October are released, with any upside surprise set to test hopes for a step down in Fed hikes. Median forecasts are for annual CPI inflation to slow to 8.0% and for the core to dip a tick to 6.5%. Also of note will be midterm U.S. elections on Tuesday where Republicans could win control of one or both chambers and lead to deadlock on fiscal policy.

In commodity markets, gold eased back to $1,673 an ounce after jumping over 3% on Friday. Oil futures lost some of their gains with Brent off $1.66 at $96.91, while U.S. crude dropped $1.85 to $90.76 per barrel.

Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Daniel Wallis & Shri Navaratnam

SYDNEY, Nov 3 (Reuters) – Asian share markets slid on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve laid the groundwork for a protracted tightening campaign that torpedoed market hopes for a pause, sank bonds and lifted the dollar.

Investors were initially cheered that the Fed opened the door to a slowdown in the pace of hikes after raising interest rates 75 basis points to 3.75-4.0%, by noting that policy acted with a lag. But Chair Jerome Powell soured the mood by saying it was “very premature” to think about pausing and that the peak for rates would likely be higher than previously expected.

“The Fed is now more comfortable with taking smaller rate increases for a longer period than delivering larger increases now,” said Brian Daingerfield, an analyst at NatWest Markets. “The tightening cycle is officially now a marathon, not a sprint.”

Futures were now split on whether the Fed would move by 50 or 75 basis points in December, and nudged up the top for rates to 5.0-5.25% likely by May next year. They also imply little chance of a rate cut until December 2023.

“Higher for longer” was not what the equity markets wanted to hear and Wall Street fell sharply after Powell’s comments. Early Thursday, S&P 500 futures were off another 0.3%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.2%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) shed 0.9%, with South Korea (.KS11) down 1.5%.

Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) was closed for a holiday, but futures were trading around 350 points below Wednesday’s cash close. Two-year Treasury yields popped up to 4.63% as the curve bear flattened, with the spread to 10-year notes near its most inverted since the turn of the century.

Attention now turns to the U.S. ISM survey of services later Thursday and Friday’s payrolls report where any upside surprise will likely reinforce the Fed’s hawkish outlook.

Also taking centre stage will be the Bank of England where the market is fully priced for a rate hike of 75 basis points to its highest since late 2008 at 3.0%. “There will be interest in the BoE’s new CPI and GDP forecasts, with the latter likely to show a deeper and more protracted recession in 2023 and 2024,” said Ray Attrill head of FX strategy at NAB.

A gloomy outlook could put more pressure on the pound, which was pinned at $1.1374 after retreating from a top of $1.1564 overnight. The U.S. dollar was broadly bid on Powell’s hawkish take, leaving the dollar index at 112.190 after an overnight bounce from a 110.400 low.

The euro was flat at $0.9810 , having toppled from a high of $0.9976 overnight, while the dollar climbed to 147.87 yen from a trough of 145.68. The bounce in the dollar and yields was a drag for gold, which was stuck at $1,633 an ounce after being as high as $1,669 at one stage overnight.

Oil prices also disliked the dollar rally with Brent down 88 cents at $95.28 a barrel, while U.S. crude fell $1.02 to $88.98. In good news for bread lovers, wheat futures plummeted overnight after Russia said it would resume its participation in a deal to export grain from war-torn Ukraine.

Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Lincoln Feast

SYDNEY, Nov 2 (Reuters) – Asian shares wobbled in cautious trading on Wednesday while the dollar sagged slightly as investors braced for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy outcome later in the global day with many looking for any signs of a slowdown in future rate hikes.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.2% lower in early trade, as a drop in Chinese bluechips (.CSI300) and Hong Kong shares (.HSI) offset an uptick in South Korea (.KS11) and Australia (.AXJO). Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) lost 0.1%.

The world’s biggest central bank is due to release its policy statement at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) on Wednesday, with investors set to closely scrutinise the statement and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for any signal that policymakers are contemplating tempering the rate hikes.

Markets widely expect the Fed to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by 75 basis points (bps) to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the fourth such increase in a row. However, traders are split on the size of the hike in December, with futures market pricing in a 44.5% probability of a 50-bps increase, according to CME’s Fed tool.

“We suspect Chair Powell will try very hard to avoid saying anything that might be misconstrued as a signal that the inevitable step down in the size of tightening is a pivot toward the end of the tightening cycle,” said Kevin Cummins, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets.

“Given that the inflation-related data have yet to show any signs of any moderation, we lean a bit more toward officials holding off from signalling they are reducing the size of hikes just yet.” Cummins expects the Fed to step down to a 50 basis point rate hike in December.

Overnight, a survey showed U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in September, suggesting that demand for labour remains strong. That sparked a reversal in Treasury yields and lifted market bets on interest rates to above 5% next year.

U.S. stocks closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) slipping 0.24%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) shedding 0.41%and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) falling 0.89%.

In the currencies market, the dollar eased 0.6% against the Japanese yen to 147.32 yen in thin liquidity, moving further away from its recent high of 148.84 yen just two sessions ago. It held largely steady against other currencies. The safe-haven greenback gave up some of the rapid gains this year in October on speculation the Fed might indicate a slowdown in its aggressive tightening campaign at its November policy meeting.

The dollar’s retreat in foreign exchange markets is temporary, according to a Reuters poll of currency strategists, who said the greenback still had enough strength left to reclaim or surpass its recent highs and resume its relentless rise. read more

“In the Fed’s view, putting the U.S. into a recession is still a lesser evil than not tackling entrenched price pressures,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. “My own view is the risks are skewed for a hawkish reaction – USD higher, but I will recognise the moves in rates suggests the market is largely positioned for this outcome.”

U.S. Treasury yields were largely steady on Wednesday after reversing much of the losses overnight on the unexpected strength in the jobs data. The yield on benchmark ten-year notes eased 2 basis points to 4.0336% while the yield on two-year notes was little changed at 4.5364%.

In commodities, oil climbed after industry data showed a surprise drop in U.S. crude stockpiles, suggesting demand is holding up. U.S. crude oil futures rose 0.5% to $88.93 per barrel, while Brent crude futures was up 0.4% at $94.98. Gold was slightly higher, with spot price trading at $1649.50 per ounce.

Editing by Shri Navaratnam