Oct 31 (Reuters) – Apollo Global Management Inc (APO.N) has begun holding cryptocurrency on behalf of its clients through a partnership with digital asset platform Anchorage Digital, in a major push by one of the world’s largest asset managers to bring crypto to institutional investors.

The move comes despite a rocky year for the crypto market, with bitcoin, the world’s largest digital asset, down more than 50% since the start of 2022, as investors have appeared jittery about decades-high inflation across the globe.

“It’s the validation of this incessant drumbeat that [crypto] is here to stay,” said Diogo Mónica, president of Anchorage Digital, a crypto firm that holds a national trust bank charter from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. “This is a very long-term horizon process and technology and that for the large institutions, it doesn’t really matter that there is volatility short term.”

Apollo, which declined to disclose what types of crypto assets it holds, said its relationship with Anchorage dates back to the middle of last year, when the firm first began exploring how best to safeguard its clients’ crypto assets. Apollo later participated in Anchorage’s Series D funding round, which was finalized in December 2021.

“As we explore creative ways to apply blockchain technology across Apollo’s business, we look forward to collaborating with Anchorage for the safekeeping of client assets,” said Adam Eling, chief operating officer of Apollo’s digital assets team. Mónica said Anchorage is also engaged with discussions about how to potentially further expand its relationship with Apollo in the future.

In April, Apollo hired former JPMorgan Chase executive Christine Moy, who will lead digital asset strategy across the business, and play a key role in its investment decisions in crypto, blockchain and Web3, a decentralized version of the internet.

Reporting by Hannah Lang in Washington; Editing by Lananh Nguyen and Diane Craft

SINGAPORE, Oct 21 (Reuters) – Asian shares tracked Wall Street lower on Friday while Treasury yields scaled 14-year highs as the prospect of aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and recession risks soured investor sentiment.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.55% but above the two-and-a-half year low it touched on Thursday. Australia’s resources-heavy share index (.AXJO) lost 0.74%, while Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) opened 0.38% lower.

China’s stock market (.SSEC) opened 0.1% higher on Friday. Xi Jinping, set to clinch a third five-year term as China’s leader, will reveal the members of its elite Politburo Standing Committee at the conclusion of the twice-a-decade congress on Sunday.

“It’s all so tenuous… the problem is the macro environment still remains difficult,” said Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, adding that the market is in a tug of war between investors who see opportunities and those who are focused on the difficult environment.

Also weighing on the market were remarks from Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker that suggested the central bank will “keep raising rates for a while.”

U.S. economic data on Thursday showing persistent labor tightness also added to investor angst. U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yields to as much as 4.234%, its highest level since June 2008.

“It really is the U.S. bond show that drives broad markets and while liquidity is an issue, talk is there are just no buyers,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

Global markets have been extremely volatile recently as investors have worried that major economies will be pushed into recessions before inflation is tamed, while a strong dollar as the Fed tightens aggressively would wreak havoc in emerging markets.

In the currency market, sterling dipped lower as investors digested the news that British Prime Minister Liz Truss had quit after just six weeks in office. The pound was last trading at $1.1205, down 0.25% on the day. /FRX

Truss’ resignation surprised no-one and was met with little market reaction given the wholesale abandonment of her policies by the finance minister, said Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at National Australia Bank. The Japanese yen hovered near a fresh 32-year low, and last traded at 150.20 per dollar. The currency first weakened past the symbolic 150 level late Thursday afternoon in Tokyo.

Fresh threats of intervention made by Japanese policymakers have kept investors on high alert, although there has been no news of further action since the Ministry of Finance’s dollar-selling, yen-buying intervention last month.

With Japan’s core consumer inflation rate accelerating to a fresh eight-year high of 3.0% in September, the data underscores the dilemma the Bank of Japan faces as it tries to underpin a weak economy by maintaining ultra-low interest rates, which in turn are fuelling an unwelcome slide in the yen.

Meanwhile, gold prices were set for a second weekly decline.

Reporting by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Lincoln Feast

NEW YORK, Oct 18 (Reuters) – Wall Street stocks closed higher and Treasury yields dipped on Tuesday as upbeat earnings and better-than-expected factory data stoked a risk-on rally.

Building on Monday’s broad gains, the S&P 500 led the major U.S. stock indexes higher to end the session up nearly 1% or more, with sectors across the board advancing. Meanwhile benchmark Treasury yields were last lower, having oscillated throughout the day.

“The market was a bit oversold leading into Monday, and people were worried of what was going to happen over the weekend. People walked into the week feeling a little better,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Conn. “You’re getting a combination of short covering and fear of missing out.”

Better-than-expected quarterly results from Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) set the tone, with robust industrial output data providing signs of economic strength even as central banks tighten monetary policy to tackle inflation.

The belief that “a recession is coming and the Fed is going to be raising interest rates, with the hope that maybe a pause is going to be coming something next year,” is now baked into the market, Pavlik said. “Without all that weight, the market can rise higher after being sold off.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 337.98 points, or 1.12%, to 30,523.8, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 42.04 points, or 1.14%, to 3,719.99 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 96.60 points, or 0.9%, to 10,772.40. Monday’s policy reversal from British finance minister Jeremy Hunt’s continued to buoy investor sentiment.

European shares extended their policy U-turn rally – with an assist from the tech sector – to close modestly higher on the day. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.34% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 1.13%. Emerging market stocks rose 1.50%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) closed 1.55% higher, while Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) rose 1.42%.

Treasury yields wavered throughout the session, but had edged lower by the closing bell. The benchmark 10-year note yield was last at 3.9922%, from 4.015% late on Monday. The 30-year bond last rose 1/32 in price to yield 4.0142%, from 4.015% late on Monday.

The British pound dipped after surging nearly 2% on Monday, which propped up the greenback against a basket of world currencies, but the dollar was last essentially flat, its gains held in check by risk-on investor sentiment. The dollar index rose 0.02%, with the euro up 0.17% to $0.9855.

The Japanese yen weakened 0.12% versus the greenback at 149.22 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.1327, down 0.23% on the day. Crude prices dropped on fears of higher U.S. stockpiles and signs of waning global demand.

U.S. crude slid 3.09% to settle at $82.82 per barrel, while Brent settled at $90.03 per barrel, down 1.74% on the day. The unchanged dollar helped support gold’s nominal gain. Spot gold added 0.1% to $1,650.94 an ounce.

Reporting by Stephen Culp; additional reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft in London; Editing by Alison Williams, Will Dunham and Deepa Babington

Oct 12 (Reuters) – Think about something novel you started doing two-and-a-half years ago to make life easier during the COVID lockdown and chances today are that there is a related story about a stock market casualty.

Add investor worries about soaring inflation and an economic slowdown that tipped Wall Street into a bear market this year, and you will find a bleak picture for the companies that became hugely popular during the pandemic.

Connected stationary bike maker Peloton Interactive (PTON.O) told employees last week that its fourth round of job cuts this year is a bid to save the company. Its problems put a spotlight on other pandemic hot-shots like Zoom Video Communications (ZM.O), Nautilus Inc (NLS.N), DocuSign Inc (DOCU.O) and DoorDash Inc (DASH.N).

Growth investors pushed Peloton stock to a $171.09 record in early 2021. Demand was so strong for its bikes that restless consumers had to wait out long delivery delays. But Peloton shares are now down 95% from their peak, closing at $8.53 on Wednesday. The S&P 500 (.SPX) by comparison is down about 25% from its record high in January this year.

Suedzucker quarterly profits surge, sees higher full-year earnings
Others bought exercize gear from Nautilus during the pandemic, sending its stock up to $31.30 in early 2021. It last traded at $1.65. Zoom became synonymous with online meetings as many people worked remotely and even turned to video conferences for social gatherings. But Zoom’s shares were last at $75.22 versus its $588.84 peak, reached in October 2020.

Other stay-at-home favorites were online retailer Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and food delivery service DoorDash . People also flocked to consumer-friendly brokers like Robinhood Markets (HOOD.O) while stuck at home with no sports to bet on. But after scaling $85 in August 2021, Robinhood last traded at $10.66.

“These are companies with good enough ideas that they get enough funding. They catch a wave like COVID, their use explodes,” said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners in Pittsburgh. But once that growth slows, investors lose interest.

“They kind of used up all the air in their universe, and they have nowhere to grow. So, while people might still be using the Peloton, not enough people are buying the Peloton,” said Forrest.

Daniel Morgan, portfolio manager at Synovus Trust in Atlanta, Georgia, says Peloton may appear cheap, but he is wary because it is not profitable. Its price-to-sales multiple has fallen to 0.8, on a trailing 4-quarter basis, from an average multiple of 6.6 since it went public in Sept. 2019, Morgan said.

Wall Street expects Peloton to report an adjusted loss per share of $2.07 for its fiscal year ending in June compared with a loss of $7.69 in its fiscal year 2022, according to Refinitiv. Zoom has been making money and its valuation also appears cheap at 35 times earnings per share versus an average multiple of 135 since its April 2019 debut, Morgan said.

Still, he is concerned about its profit decline. Zoom’s adjusted earnings per share is expected to fall 27% for its fiscal year ending in January versus 2022 growth of 55.5%, according to Refinitiv. Morgan also pointed to a growth slowdown for DoorDash and retail giant Amazon.com as they are also being hurt by soaring inflation and economic uncertainty.

“Each company is going to have to see how their particular business model can execute in a normalized environment,” he said.

Carol Schleif, deputy chief investment officer at BMO’s family office in Minneapolis, cautioned against investing in companies that look cheap and have loyal customers. It’s all about management, balance sheets and projected income, she said. While one possible outcome for pandemic favorites with slowing growth could be a buyout by a larger company, Schleif is wary of making this bet.

“Buying a stock because you think it’s going to get taken out, that’s a risk. I wouldn’t be willing to do it with any money I wasn’t willing to lose,” she said. “It’s not really investing. It’s more opportunistic.

Reporting By Sinéad Carew, Lance Tupper and Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Alden Bentley and Richard Pullin

NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 10 (Reuters) – The MSCI global index of stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) lost ground in a volatile session on Monday while the dollar gained slightly as investors braced for high inflation data and the start of corporate earnings season. Oil futures sold off and Wall Street’s stock indexes were volatile, while U.S. bond markets were closed for a federal holiday.

Weighing on investors was also a Russian missile attack on Ukraine that killed civilians and knocked out power and heat in cites across the country. President Vladimir Putin said he had ordered “massive” long range strikes after an attack on the bridge linking Russia to the annexed Crimean peninsula over the weekend, and threatened more strikes in future if Ukraine hits Russian territory.

U.S. investors, anxious about rising interest rates and signs of economic weakness, were also cautious ahead of inflation data due out Thursday and the start of the third-quarter earnings season on Friday. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) Chief Executive Jamie Dimon told CNBC the United States and the global economy could tip into a recession by mid-2023.

Then Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said tighter U.S. monetary policy had begun to be felt in an economy that may be slowing faster than expected, but that the full interest rate increases would not be apparent for months.

China tech shares sink as U.S. export curbs raise chip sector hurdles
“There’s nothing specific in Brainard’s comments that makes you say the Fed is changing its policy but there’s at least some signs that the Fed is not proceeding blindly on a rate hiking restrictive path,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers in Greenwich, Connecticut.

“Dimon’s comments definitely didn’t help. A lackluster downward market didn’t need those comments. They’ve been balanced out somewhat by Brainard.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 93.91 points, or 0.32%, to 29,202.88; the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 27.27 points, or 0.75%, at 3,612.39; and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 110.30 points, or 1.04%, to 10,542.10.

Nasdaq led the declines and registered its lowest closing level since July 2020 as chip stocks sold off sharply on the Biden administration’s sweeping set of export controls published on Friday, including a measure to cut off China from certain semiconductors made with U.S. equipment.

Wall Street had already declined on Friday after an upbeat September jobs report cemented expectations for another large rate hike. Four of the biggest U.S. banks are due to report earnings on Friday, with large lenders expected to post lower profits as the economy slowed and volatile markets stifled dealmaking.

The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) ended down 1.0% in its fourth straight day of losses. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) had closed down 0.4% after skimming one-week lows. Emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) lost 1.4%.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans also said on Monday that U.S. Fed officials were closely aligned on the need to raise the target policy rate to around 4.5% by early next year, unless data upends current projections.

Minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting will be published this week and could offer clues on rate-setters’ thinking about future monetary policy. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.3%. The Japanese yen weakened 0.25% versus the greenback at 145.70 per dollar, while sterling traded at $1.1057, down 0.24% on the day.

The Bank of England sought to ease concerns about this week’s expiry of its program designed to calm turmoil in the government bond market, announcing new safety-net measures including a doubling of the maximum size of its debt buybacks.

Even though U.S. bond markets were closed on Monday, Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist of John Hancock investment management based in Boston, said the UK news was not helping the U.S. stock market. “It looks like an ongoing spillover from the bond market into the equity market continues this week,” said Miskin, adding to expectations for a high inflation reading later this week.

Investors are betting “the Fed’s not going to be able to back down until inflation comes down,” he said. Oil prices sank by nearly 2%, after five straight sessions of gains, as investors feared economic storm clouds could foreshadow a global recession and erode fuel demand. U.S. crude fell $1.51 to $91.13 per barrel while Brent settled at $96.19, down $1.73. Spot gold dropped 1.5% to $1,669.28 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 1.89% to $1,668.40 an ounce.

Reporting by Sinead Carew in New York and Amanda Cooper in London Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney Editing by Matthew Lewis, Alistair Bell and Richard Chang

Sept 15 (Reuters) – Oil prices edged upwards in early Asian trade on Thursday, as supply concerns and a looming rail stoppage in the United States, the world’s biggest crude consumer, supported markets.

Brent crude futures rose 38 cents, or 0.4%, to $94.48 a barrel by 0013 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 46 cents, or 0.5%, to $88.94. The dollar index slipped 0.14% on Wednesday, dialing back the previous session’s gains, lifting demand for dollar-denominated commodities such as crude oil from holders of other currencies.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said Wednesday it expects widespread switching from gas to oil for heating purposes, saying it will average 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October 2022 to March 2023 – double the level of a year ago. That, along with overall expectations for weak supply growth, also helped boost the market.

The increasing likelihood of a U.S. rail stoppage due to an ongoing labor dispute is also adding support to the market. Three unions are negotiating for a new contract that could affect rail shipments, which are important for crude and product deliveries.

TotalEnergies SE (TTEF.PA) cut production at its 238,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Port Arthur, Texas, refinery because of the planned shutdown of two sulfur recovery units (SRUs) on Wednesday, said sources familiar with plant operations.

Reporting by Laura Sanicola; Editing by Michael Perry

NEW YORK, Sept 13 (Reuters) – The dollar index rallied on Tuesday and the S&P 500 tumbled 4% while Treasury yields surged after data showed U.S. consumer prices rising faster than expected in August, prompting bets for more aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Oil futures also lost ground after the Labor Department data on Tuesday showed that declining gasoline prices in August were offset by gains in rent and food costs. The Consumer Price Index gained 0.1% last month versus expectations for a 0.1% decline and after being unchanged in July. Wall Street’s equity indexes saw their deepest one-day percentage declines since June 2020.

This was a sharp reversal after the major stock indexes had rallied on Monday and in the previous week as investors had bet Tuesday’s data would show an easing in inflation and provide a path for the Fed to ease its policy tightening. But by Tuesday’s close, the prospects of more aggressive tightening were instead fueling investor fears about the economy.

“As the day went on it seems that there’s growing concern about the upcoming Fed meeting, concern that the Fed may make a more hawkish move than earlier anticipated,” said Greg Bassuk, chief executive of AXS Investments in New York.

“What grows from that is the greater likelihood the economy could be tipped into a recession.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 1,276.37 points, or 3.94%, to 31,104.97; while the S&P 500 (.SPX) declined 177.72 points, or 4.32%, to 3,932.69; and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) tumbled 632.84 points, or 5.16%, to 11,633.57.

“Moderating inflation is key to higher equity prices and at the moment inflation is running hot. That implies volatility will remain more the norm than the exception into year-end.” said Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at US Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis. “It clearly suggests the Fed next week will deliver more of the same and remain unwavering in their pursuit to tame inflation.”

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 3.39% in its biggest daily decline since June 13 after the index had risen in the previous four sessions. “This was another disappointment. It’s the old Charlie Brown analogy. Every time we’re ready to kick the ball, it’s moved away from us.” said Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.

In currencies the dollar index rose 1.534% in its biggest one-day percentage gain since March 19, 2020, with the euro down 1.46% to $0.9971 on Tuesday.

The Japanese yen weakened 1.17% versus the safe-haven greenback at 144.52 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.1499, down 1.54% on the day. FRX Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields surged and a recession warning – the yield curve inversion – widened after the inflation data also bucked bond investor expectations.

Benchmark 10-year notes last fell 14/32 in price to yield 3.4157%, from 3.362% late on Monday. The 2-year note last fell 10/32 in price to yield 3.7434%, up from 3.571% in the previous session. The gap between yields on two- and 10-year notes , seen as a recession harbinger, was just under -33 basis points.

“It really comes down to how sticky inflation remains,” said Mauricio Agudelo, senior fixed income portfolio manager at Homestead Funds Advisers. “It’s a battle that the Fed will continue to fight and they will have to continue pressing, unfortunately at the risk of breaking something.”

Oil prices swung lower after the inflation data and renewed COVID-19 curbs in China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, also weighed on crude prices. Oil is generally priced in U.S. dollars, so a stronger greenback makes it pricier to holders of other currencies. U.S. crude settled down 0.54% at $87.31 per barrel and Brent settled at $93.17, down 0.88% on the day.

The climbing dollar also put pressure on gold prices. Spot gold dropped 1.3% to $1,702.39 an ounce while U.S. gold futures fell 1.45% to $1,705.00 an ounce.

Additional reporting by Herbert Lash and Caroline Valetkevitch in New York, Marc Jones in London, Yoruk Bahceli in Amsterdam; Editing by Louise Heavens, Nick Zieminski and Jonathan Oatis

New York, Sept 12 (Reuters) – Wall Street equity indexes closed higher on Monday as some investors bet that August data would show easing U.S. inflation while others were encouraged by news that Ukraine had made progress against Russia in a war that has hurt the global economy.

After falling to its lowest level in more than two weeks the dollar pared some losses against a basket of currencies a day ahead of the closely watched U.S. consumer price index data with some investors hoping slowing price increases will slow the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes.

U.S. Treasury yields, after falling earlier, were higher in afternoon trading as bond investors were also eagerly awaiting consumer price data. Consumer price data due on Tuesday is expected to show headline inflation rose 8.1% year-over-year in August versus 8.5% in July. Core CPI, which exclude food and energy prices, is expected to show a rise of 6.1% versus 5.9% in July.

If inflation decreases the market is hoping this “translates into smaller rate hikes” after the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “Because of that you’re seeing a risk-on type of mentality today,” Pavlik said. “The market has now fully priced in a 75 basis point hike for September” but it is hoping the next one is 50 basis points, he added.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 229.63 points, or 0.71%, to 32,381.34, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 43.05 points, or 1.06%, to 4,110.41 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 154.10 points, or 1.27%, to 12,266.41. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) had closed up 1.76% while MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) was up 1.26%.

European stocks had risen after Moscow on Saturday abandoned its main bastion in northeastern Ukraine, in a sudden collapse of one of its principal frontlines.

“Markets rallied overnight in a follow-through from Friday. You have stories about Ukraine making progress. Ultimately a move beyond the war is a positive for everybody. Obviously, it still remains to be seen but it’s helping fuel the optimism,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading in Stamford, Connecticut.

In currencies, the euro also reacted positively to Ukraine’s advances, extending gains that started last week after a European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike announcement. The dollar index fell 0.368%, with the euro up 0.75% to $1.0114.

The Japanese yen weakened 0.21% versus the greenback at 142.85 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.1677, up 0.78% on the day. Sterling briefly fell to its lowest level since early 2021 against a robust euro on Monday, while news that Britain’s economy grew less than expected in July highlighted a weak growth outlook. read more

Most Latin American currencies rallied on Monday, with Brazil’s real hitting two-week highs, as a broad retreat in the dollar boosted risk appetite globally.

Benchmark 10-year notes last fell 10/32 in price to yield 3.3577%, from 3.321% late on Friday. The 30-year bond last fell 30/32 in price to yield 3.5094%, from 3.456%. Oil prices settled higher on Monday, shaking off expectations for weaker demand as concerns about supply mounted heading into the winter.

U.S. crude settled up $0.99 at $87.78 per barrel and Brent finished at $94.00, up 1.25% or $1.16 on the day. Spot gold added 0.6% to $1,725.73 an ounce. U.S. gold futures gained 0.67% to $1,728.10 an ounce.

Additional reporting by Herbert Lash in New York, Samuel Indyk in London, Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Bernadette Baum, David Evans and Andrea Ricci

SYDNEY, Sept 12 (Reuters) – Asian share markets made cautious gains on Monday on hopes a key reading on U.S. inflation will show some cooling, while the U.S. dollar was restrained by the risk of higher European interest rates and Japanese intervention.

Holidays in China and South Korea made for slow trading, while traders were unsure about what implications Ukraine’s surprising success against Russian forces might have. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.2%, having bounced modestly from a two-year low hit last week. Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) added another 0.9%, after rallying 2% last week.

Wall Street looked to extend Friday’s bounce and S&P 500 futures edged up 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.2%. Bulls are hoping Tuesday’s reading on U.S. consumer prices will hint at a peak for inflation as falling petrol prices are seen pulling down the headline index by 0.1%. The core is forecast to rise 0.3%, though some analysts see a chance of a softer report.

“Arguably, with the economy having contracted through the first half, and household discretionary spending capacity under significant pressure, we are due a modest downside surprise,” said economists at Westpac. “As such, we forecast +0.2% for core and -0.2% for headline,” they added. “If achieved though, it should not be assumed that October and beyond will see repeats, with volatility likely to persist.”

A soft number might revive speculation the Federal Reserve will only hike by 50 basis points this month, though it would likely have to be very weak to have a real impact given how stridently hawkish policy makers have been recently. The market currently implies an 88% chance the Fed will hike by 75 basis points.

BofA global economist Ethan Harris fears that by focusing on actual inflation to determining when to stop, central banks may go too far. The bank has lifted its target for the federal funds rate to a range of 4.0-4.25%, with a 75bp hike in September and smaller rises thereafter.

“For investors, this means more pressure on interest rates, more weakness in risk assets and further upside for the super-strong dollar,” said Harris. “In our view, these trends only turn when markets price the full fury of central bank hikes and we are not quite there yet.”

For now, the dollar has run into some profit taking from a market that is very long of the currency after a month of sustained gains. So rapidly has the dollar risen on the yen that Japanese authorities are becoming increasingly vocal in protesting their currency’s decline, sparking speculation of intervention and putting pressure on the Bank of Japan to moderate its policy of yield curve control.

Japan’s government must take steps as needed to counter excessive declines in the yen, a senior government official said on Sunday, after it hit its weakest level against the dollar in 24 years. That was enough to see the dollar hold at 142.67 yen and off last week’s top of 144.99.
The dollar index stood at 108.820 , having reached as high as 110.790 last week. The euro inched up to $1.0067 , and away from its recent trough of $0.9865.

It was helped in part by a Reuters report that European Central Bank policymakers see a growing risk that they will have to raise their key interest rate to 2% or more to curb record-high inflation despite a likely recession. Analysts at ANZ noted the dollar over the past month was up roughly 9% against the euro and the Chinese yuan, 12% against the British pound and 19% against the yen.

“The rampant USD is causing strain in developing countries, which are finding imports priced in USD more expensive,” they said in a note. “With Fed speakers using every opportunity to hammer home a hawkish message and quantitative tightening looming, the USD is not about to dramatically turn.” The ascent of the dollar combined with high bond yields has been a drag for gold, which was hovering at $1,718 an ounce after hitting a low of $1,690 last week.

Oil prices have also been trending lower amid concerns about a global economic slowdown, though cuts to supply did prompt a 4% bounce on Friday. Early Monday, Brent was down 36 cents at $92.48, while U.S. crude eased 45 cents to $86.34 per barrel.

Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Himani Sarkar

As tributes pour in for Queen Elizabeth II, attention is being focused on ‘Operation London Bridge,’ the U.K.’s reported plans for what happens following the monarch’s death.

The Queen died peacefully at her Balmoral home in Scotland on Thursday, the Royal Family said in a statement. She was 96.

In 2017 The Guardian reported that plans for what happens after the death of the Queen are known by the code word “London Bridge.” The first plans date back to the 1960s and have been refined over the subsequent decades, it said.

Last year Politico obtained documents, which it said detail the “London Bridge” plans in granular detail. The day of the Queen’s death is known internally as “D-Day,” according to the report, with subsequent days leading up to the funeral know as “D+1,” “D+2,” “D+3,” and so forth. The Queen’s funeral is expected to be held 10 days after her death, according to the report.

The Accession Council, a group of privy counselors, or advisors to the sovereign, is usually convened within 24 hours of a monarch’s death. The Council “is customarily held at St James’s Palace to make formal Proclamation of the death of the Monarch and the accession of the successor to the throne,” according to its website.

Politico reports that the Accession Council will meet at St. James’s Palace on the morning after the Queen’s death. The U.K. Parliament will also meet to agree on a message of condolence, according to the report, with parliamentary business then suspended for 10 days.

On D+2, the Queen’s coffin will return to Buckingham Palace, Politico reports. Also citing the London Bridge plan, the Guardian reported in 2017 that, in the event of the Queen’s death at Balmoral, her coffin would be transferred to Holyroodhouse Palace in Edinburgh before being transported back to London on the Royal Train. Politico reports that there is also a contingency plan in place to transport her coffin back to London by plane.

On the morning of D+3, King Charles will reportedly receive Parliament’s message of condolence at Parliament’s historic Westminster Hall, before embarking on a tour of the U.K.

On D+5 the Queen’s coffin will reportedly be taken from Buckingham Palace to Westminster Hall. She will then lie in state for three days, according to Politico. Dating back to the 11th century, the cavernous Westminster Hall is the oldest part of the Palace of Westminster, which houses the U.K. Parliament. In February 1952 the Queen’s father, King George VI, also lay in state at Westminster Hall.

Throughout this time, the U.K. will also be making plans to host heads of state and dignitaries from across the world for the queen’s funeral, as well as orchestrating plans for the throng of people expected to flood London for the historic event.

A state funeral will be held at Westminster Abbey on D+10, according to Politico, with two minutes’ silence being observed across the U.K. at midday. The Independent reports that the London Stock Exchange LSEG, +0.76% will close on the day of the Queen’s funeral, along with most U.K. banks. The queen will be buried at Windsor Castle’s King George VI Memorial Chapel, according to Politico.

By James Rogers