(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks markets opened on a cautious note Tuesday ahead of key economic data from China and after stocks on Wall Street eked out small gains late in the session.

Shares were slightly higher in Japan while benchmarks fell in South Korea and Australia. Futures for Hong Kong pointed to small declines. The possibility of further Federal Reserve policy tightening lifted Treasury yields and constrained US stocks, with the S&P 500 erasing losses in afternoon trading and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 underperforming major equity benchmarks.

The dollar was fractionally higher versus its major counterparts, adding to gains of the past two days. Government bond yields in Australia and New Zealand rose in the slipstream of moves Treasuries overnight.

Treasuries were little changed at the Asia open, with yield on the two-year note just below 4.2%. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said he wants to see more evidence that US inflation is easing back to the central bank’s goal of 2%. New York state manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in April for the first time in five months as new orders and shipments snapped back.

Much of the focus in Asia will be on China and the strength of its economic recovery. Figures on Tuesday are projected to show gross domestic product expanded 4% in the first quarter from a year earlier, well below the government’s target for full-year growth of around 5%. March data may show increases in industrial output, investment and retail sales.

Meanwhile, minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting earlier this month will be parsed for signs that rates may be lifted again after a pause, while Indonesia’s central bank is expected to keep its benchmark unchanged.

A gauge of cross-asset volatility remained at 14-month low, reflecting a growing assurance that the worst of the banking turmoil and US rate hikes may be over. The VIX Index, another volatility measure, sat below 17, its lowest since the start of last year.

Still, US bank earnings on Monday didn’t entirely relieve investor nervousness that the sector can quickly bounce from turmoil that roiled several lenders earlier this year, as a so-called earnings recession in the world’s biggest economy looms.

Charles Schwab Corp. rose as executives said the firm can weather the turmoil roiling US banks, while pausing stock buybacks in response to the industry’s worst crisis since 2008. State Street Corp. fell as it reported clients retreated from its investment products.

With the earning season starting, “we’ve had estimates be revised lower for this quarter, they’re down around 7%, which is a pretty low bar to step over and I think you’re starting to see companies do that,” Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital, said on Bloomberg Radio. “The risk lies in the second half of the year, perhaps in the earnings that need to be revised down in that period.”

“The risk-reward for equities does not look attractive into the second half in light of risk-free hurdle rate at 5%,” a team of strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co., including Marko Kolanovic, wrote in a note. “The main disconnect revolves around the hopes of a soft landing with inflation coming down quickly.”

Elsewhere, oil was steady after West Texas Intermediate posted its biggest loss in a month on Monday. Gold was little changed.

The bust of the stock market bubble will only be halfway over when the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates, according to GMO founder Jeremy Grantham. He expects that to happen in late 2024.

The legendary investor — who’s made his name predicting market crashes across multiple decades — predicts even more gloom ahead in the market. Previously, Grantham said stocks were in the “final phase” before crashing, and asset prices that ballooned in recent years could soon pop as the economy risks facing a steep recession.

Though some investors are looking for signs of the next bull market, that’s the wrong way to think about stocks in the current environment, Grantham said. “Great Bubbles” in the stock market are different from typical bull and bear markets, meaning it’s likely there’s another round of pain ahead.

“Most of the decline in these great bear markets only happens after the first interest rate cut. So you tell me when the first interest rate cut is, and I will tell you when the second half of the pain is going to start,” Grantham said in an interview with The Investor’s Podcast on Friday.

Investors have already seen hefty losses over the last year amid rising inflation and higher interest rates, which have taken away the liquidity that previously caused asset prices to soar. Central bankers have raised interest rates 475 basis-points to tame inflation, a move that caused the S&P 500 to tank 20% in 2022, with the index now down 14% from its all-time-record in 2021.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said rates will stay elevated through the rest of this year, which is expected to hinder stock performance. But markets are pricing in a 33% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut as soon as July, according to the CME FedWatch tool, partly because interest rates at these levels could easily push the economy into recession.

Stocks could crash as much as 50% if the economy enters a severe recession, Grantham previously predicted. Though his forecasts are on the more bearish end of the spectrum, his view mirrors that of other Wall Street strategists, who say a recession and stock market downside are extremely likely in 2023.

By Noel Randewich and Ankika Biswas

(Reuters) – The S&P 500 dipped and the Nasdaq ended sharply lower on Wednesday after a growing wave of weak economic data deepened worries that the Federal Reserve’s rapid interest rate hikes might tip the U.S. economy into a recession.

Nvidia Corp dropped 2.1% and was among the stocks weighing most on the S&P 500 after Alphabet Inc’s Google unit said the supercomputers it uses to train its artificial intelligence models were faster and more power-efficient than comparable components made by the chipmaker.

Tesla Inc fell 3.7%, while Amazon and Apple declined more than 1%, pulling down the Nasdaq and reversing gains in some of Wall Street’s most valuable companies in recent weeks.

Caterpillar, viewed as a bellwether for the industrial sector, dropped 1.8%, bringing its loss over the past two days to 7% as investors fretted about a potential economic downturn.

GRAPHIC: S&P 500’s busiest trades    https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/egvbylkbapq/SPX_by_busiest_trades.png

The S&P 500 declined 0.25% to end the session at 4,090.38 points.

The Nasdaq fell 1.07% to 11,996.86 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.24% to 33,482.72 points.

Driving the recession fears, the ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in March. That followed Tuesday’s weak job openings data.

As well, the Institute for Supply Management’s survey showed the services sector slowed more than expected last month on cooling demand, while a measure of prices paid by services businesses fell to a near three-year low.

Earlier this week data showed falling factory orders and soft manufacturing activity.

Wall Street’s recent losses in reaction to signs of a slowing economy mark a change from recent months, when investors cheered weak economic data on the basis that it might mean the Fed’s interest rate hikes were working and that the Fed could ease up on its campaign to rein in decades-high inflation.

“We may have transitioned from the notion that ‘bad news is good news’ to ‘bad new is bad news’,” said Jay Hatfield, chief executive and portfolio manager at InfraCap in New York. “Fear about a recession is the dominant theme.”

Reflecting worries about the economy and recent turmoil in the banking sector, interest rate futures imply 61% odds that the Fed will cut interest rates from current levels by the end of its July meeting, according to CME Group’s Fedwatch tool.

GRAPHIC: Traders bet on Fed rate cut by July meeting   https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-RATES/FEDWATCH/egpbyjlzxvq/chart.png

Of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, seven declined, led lower by consumer discretionary, down 2.04%, followed by a 1.3% loss in industrials.

Among stocks that kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average in positive territory, Johnson & Johnson rallied 4.5% after its $8.9 billion offer to settle talc-related lawsuits gained the support of thousands of claimants, easing an overhang on its plans to list consumer health unit Kenvue.

Artificial intelligence C3.ai Inc tumbled more than 15%, sliding for a second day after a short seller alleged accounting issues. The AI company denied the allegations in an emailed response to Reuters.

FedEx Corp rose 1.5% as the freight bellwether firm said it will fold its operating divisions into one organization as it steps up efforts to cut costs and increase efficiency.

Big banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co and Citigroup will be among companies kicking off March-quarter reporting season next week, with investors eager for updates on the health of the financial industry.

Analysts on average expect aggregate S&P 500 company earnings for the first quarter to have fallen 5% year-over-year, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S.

Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones within the S&P 500 by a 1.2-to-one ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 11 new highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 39 new highs and 269 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was relatively light, with 10.1 billion shares traded, compared to an average of 12.7 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions.

By Yasin Ebrahim 

Investing.com — The Dow closed lower Tuesday, as a slump in industrials and a wobble in banks amid fresh jitters that the banking turmoil isn’t over just weighed on investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.59% or 198 points, and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.6%.

Regional banks including Zions Bancorporation (NASDAQ:ZION), First Republic Bank (NYSE:FRC), and Comerica (NYSE:CMA) led the selloff in financials as JPMorgan chief executive warned that the banking crisis was far from over and the impact of the turmoil in the sector will likely reverberate for years.

The warning arrived just as data showed job openings fell more than expected last month, adding to concerns about the economy just as Federal Reserve members continue to call for higher rates.

The U.S. Labor Department’s latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTs report, a measure of labor demand, showed job openings in February fell to about 9.9 million, missing expectations of 10.4M.

Industrials, meanwhile, was also a big drag on the broader market, paced by a decline in Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) and United Rentals, Inc. (NYSE:URI) after Baird downgraded the stocks to underperform.

Baird said both companies will likely see a dent in building activity as the banking turmoil in regional banks, which account for about 70% of commercial real estate loans, leads to reduced lending activity.

Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA), a major Dow component, fell nearly 1% after Northcoast Research downgraded the company to sell from neutral amid worries that engine maker CFM International won’t be able to deliver enough engines to the aircraft maker, curbing its growth.

Energy, meanwhile, gave up its gains from a day earlier as oil prices as investor focus shifted to the impact of a slowing global economy on crude demand.

Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO), Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX), and Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) were among the biggest losers, with the latter more than 8%.

In other news, Virgin Orbit Holdings (NASDAQ:VORB) fell 23% as the satellite launch company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after recently announcing that it would cut the bulk of its staff as it failed to secure funding.

By Ambar Warrick

Investing.com–Gold prices kept to a tight range on Tuesday as markets hunkered down ahead of more cues on monetary policy from a testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while copper prices steadied in anticipation of Chinese trade data.

Powell is set to testify before Congress at 10:00 AM EST (15:00 GMT), and is likely to outline the path of interest rates in the coming months. But markets are unsure over what tone the Fed Chair will set, given that while inflation unexpectedly rose in January, other economic indicators showed the U.S. economy was cooling.

Expectations that interest rates will peak sooner, rather than later, saw gold prices stage a strong recovery through the prior week. The yellow metal also saw some safe haven demand amid flashing signals of a recession, as an inversion in the U.S. yield curve deepened. 

Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,844.49 an ounce, while gold futures fell 0.1%  to $1,849.95 an ounce by 19:22 ET (00:01 GMT). Both instruments fell 0.3% on Monday. 

Rising interest rates bode poorly for gold, given that they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. But signs of cooling economic growth in the U.S. has brewed some speculation over the Fed lacking the sufficient economic headroom to keep raising rates.

Still, the prospect of higher interest rates saw gold prices fall sharply from highs hit in January. 

Other precious metals retreated slightly on Tuesday. Platinum futures fell 0.1% to $980.0 an ounce, while silver futures fell 0.1% to $21.122 an ounce.

Weakness in the dollar helped limit losses in metal markets, as investors locked in profits in the greenback after a strong February. U.S. Treasury yields also cooled from recent peaks.

Focus this week is also on nonfarm payrolls data for February, with any signs of strength in the jobs market giving the Fed more economic headroom to keep hiking rates.

Among industrial metals, copper prices were steady after ending a highly volatile session in positive territory on Monday. Copper futures fell 0.1% to $4.0728 a pound after rising 0.7% in the prior session.

The red metal was initially hit hard by a softer-than-expected GDP outlook from China. But signs of some economic resilience in the rest of the globe helped traders look past weak demand cues from the world’s largest copper importer.

Focus is now on more cues from China, starting with trade data due later in the day.

By Ankur Banerjee

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar made a tentative start to the week on Monday as investors awaited testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and looked towards for a February jobs report that will likely influence how hawkish the U.S. central bank will be.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers, was down 0.057% at 104.560, but not far off a seven-week high of 105.36 it touched last week. The index last week clocked a weekly loss for the first time since January.

After delivering jumbo hikes last year, the Fed has raised interest rates by 25 basis points in its latest two meetings, but a slew of resilient economic data has stoked market fears that the central bank might return to its aggressive path.

Futures imply a 72% chance the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on March 22.

The spotlight will be firmly on the February jobs report scheduled for Friday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.

“U.S. underlying inflation remains stubbornly high well above the Fed’s inflation target of 2%,” said Joseph Capurso, head of international and sustainable economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY).

Recent data suggest that consumer spending is not slowing much, while the labour market is unsustainably tight, Capurso said in a note, adding that Powell would likely be hawkish in his testimony.

Citi strategists expect Powell to indicate a preference for a 25 bps hike but leave all options on the table, since he will speak before the jobs data are released.

Citi expects an increase in payrolls of 255,000 following January’s enormous 517,000 jump. A large surprise on the upside could lead to a 50 bps hike from the Fed, Citi said.

Meanwhile, the euro was down 0.02% to $1.0632, having gained 0.8% last week.

The Japanese yen strengthened 0.01% to 135.85 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.203, down 0.08% on the day.

In the spot market, the onshore yuan opened at 6.9072 per dollar and was last changing hands at 6.9067. On Sunday, China set a modest target for 2023 economic growth of around 5% as it kicked off the annual session of its National People’s Congress.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin rose 0.95% to $22,455.94, having fallen 5% on Friday. Ethereum was up 0.51% at $1,567.30.

The Australian dollar fell 0.19% to $0.676, while the kiwi eased 0.10% to $0.622.

Feb 27 (Reuters) – Wall Street and global shares rebounded modestly on Monday on favorable economic data and bargain hunting, but remained within sight of recent six-week lows, as investors prepared for higher interest rates in the United States and Europe.

U.S. core capital goods orders accelerated in January, beating forecasts, according to government figures released on Monday, and contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes rose the most in more than 2-1/2 years in January.

At the same time, Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson said on Monday he was under “no illusion” that inflation would return quickly to the Fed’s target, with the cost of a broad array of services in the United States still “stubbornly high.”

Amid a confounding mix of economic signals, Wall Street shares edged up on Monday, a sign of potential bargain hunting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to 32,889.09, the S&P 500 gained 0.3%, at 3,982.24, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.6%, at 11,466.98.

The MSCI All-World index of global shares was up 0.44% after dropping 2.6% last week, its largest weekly decline since late September thanks to a sizzling rally in the dollar.

The index is heading for a nearly 3% decline in February, after a rally the month before drove many major stock indices to their strongest January performance in years.

“With the equity market showing signs of exhaustion after the last Fed meeting, the S&P 500 is at critical technical support,” Morgan Stanley U.S. equity analysts wrote in a note on Monday. “Given our view on earnings, March is a high risk month for the bear market to resume.”

January’s euphoria, founded on expectations that major economies will avoid tumbling into recession this year, has given way to something approaching realism about the outlook for interest rates, which are going to rise more and stay high longer than many had previously anticipated.

“Fed speak this week … will emphasize the need for more rate hikes, as per usual by now,” TD Securities strategists wrote in a note on Monday. If economic data for February is as strong in January, “some officials might signal upside risk to their rate outlook,” they added.

Fed futures now have rates peaking at around 5.4%, implying at least three more hikes from the current 4.50% to 4.75% band, and some chance of 50 basis points in March.

When the Fed concluded its last policy meeting in early February, prior to the release of bumper January employment, consumer spending, and business-sector activity data, markets showed traders expected a peak rate of 4.73%, meaning that almost an extra three-quarters of a point is now priced in.

U.S. two-year Treasury yields, the most sensitive to shifts in interest-rate expectations, have risen almost 80 bps in that time, while the S&P 500 has lost 6% from Feb. 2’s five-month highs.

On Monday, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 4.785%, while 10-year Treasury yields dropped 2.3 basis points to 3.926%.

STOCKS RECOUP SOME LOSSES

European stocks bounced back on Monday, as typically rate-sensitive sectors such as oil and gas and technology picked up after falling sharply last week by 1.4% and 3.8% respectively.

The STOXX 600, which last week lost 1.4%, was up about 1.1%.

Economists at British banks Barclays and Natwest both said they believe the Fed could raise rates by as much as half a percentage point in March, well above the quarter-point that markets have priced in.

It is not just the United States where investors believe the central bank will have to keep raising rates to reduce inflation. Money markets show traders believe the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will have to lift rates to a higher peak and leave them there for longer.

Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan, has added another quarter-point hike to the ECB outlook, taking it to 100 basis points. Germany’s 2-year bond yield broke above 3.0% on Friday for the first time since 2008.

“The risk is clearly skewed toward greater action from the Fed,” Kasman said.

The dollar has been the main beneficiary of the shift in expectations for Fed rates.

It has risen by around 2.5% this month against a basket of major currencies, which would mark its strongest monthly performance since September, when it hit 20-year highs.

It was last down 0.5% on the day, pushed in part by gains in the pound, which gained about 1% as British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak struck a deal with the European Union on post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland.

Oil prices declined on Monday as the dollar’s recent strength discouraged buying, though losses were limited by supply concerns after Russia halted exports to Poland via a key pipeline. U.S. crude fell 0.85% to $75.67 per barrel and Brent was at $82.25, down 1.09% on the day.

Spot gold added 0.4% to $1,817.40 an ounce.

SYDNEY, Sept 26 (Reuters) – Asian stocks were set to start the final week of the quarter on the slide on Monday, while the dollar stood ascendant, as the prospect of high interest rates and poor growth shakes markets.

S&P 500 futures were flat after an initial wobble lower. Futures pointed to falls in Tokyo , Sydney and Hong Kong . The dollar made new highs on sterling, the euro and the Aussie in thin morning trade.

Last week, stocks and bonds crumbled after the United States and half a dozen other countries raised rates and projected pain ahead. Japan intervened in currency trade to support the yen. Investors lost confidence in Britain’s economic management. The Nasdaq (.IXIC) lost more than 5% for the second week running. The S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 4.8%.

“A weekend of reflection hasn’t led anybody to change their opinion,” said National Australia Bank’s head of currency strategy, Ray Attrill in Sydney. “It’s a case of shoot first and ask questions later, as far as UK assets are concerned.”

Gilts suffered their heaviest selling in three decades on Friday and on Monday the pound made a 37-year low at $1.0765 as investors reckon planned tax cuts will stretch government finances to the limit.
Sterling is down 11% this quarter.

Five-year gilt yields rose 94 basis points last week, by far the biggest weekly jump recorded in Refinitiv data stretching back to the mid 1980s. Treasuries tanked as well last week, with two-year yields up 35 bps to 4.2140% and benchmark 10-year yields up 25 bps to 3.6970%.

The euro wobbled to a two-decade low at $0.9660 as risks rise of war escalating in Ukraine, before steadying at $0.9696. In Italy, a right-wing alliance led by Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party was on course for a clear majority in the next parliament, as expected. Some took heart from a middling performance by eurosceptics The League.

“I expect a relatively little impact considering that the League, the party with the least pro-European stance, seems to have come out weak,” said Giuseppe Sersale, fund manager and strategist at Anthilia in Milan.

Other currencies were nursing losses. The Aussie touched $0.6510, its lowest since mid-2020. The yen hovered at 143.47 with worries over possible further intervention keeping it from losses. Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market on Thursday to buy yen for the first time since 1998.

Oil and gold steadied after drops against the rising dollar last week. Gold hit a more-than two-year low on Friday and bought $1,643 an ounce on Monday. Brent crude futures rose 71 cents to $86.86 a barrel.

Additional reporting by Danilo Masoni in Milan; Editing by Kim Coghill and Sam Holmes

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. stocks closed mixed on Monday as downbeat Chinese and New York state data kindled recession fears, but the 10-year Treasury note’s yield staying firmly under 3% spurred hopes the Federal Reserve will prudently hike interest rate hikes.

Chinese retail and factory activity fell sharply in April as COVID-19 lockdowns severely disrupted supply chains while New York’s factory output slumped in May for the third time this year amid a collapse in new orders and shipments. read more

The Chinese data cast a long shadow over the world’s second-largest economy while the steep drop in New York manufacturing could be an early signal of the impact of the Fed’s plans to tighten monetary policy to tackle rapidly rising inflation.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS)closed down 0.21% and Treasury yields fell, with the benchmark 10-year note down 4.7 basis points at 2.886% after hitting 3.2% a week ago. Some see the decline since then as a sign the market has priced in all or most of the Fed’s expected rate hikes.

“The most important thing happening in the market right now is the fact that the 10-year yield has held below 3%,” said Tom Hayes, chairman and managing member of Great Hill Capital LLC.

Five Fed officials slated to speak on Tuesday also is key considering the market’s recent tumble, he said. “Usually when you’re near a low in the market and you got five Fed speakers, they’re generally not there to talk the market down,” Hayes said.

With earnings growth turning positive and a more reasonable price-to-earnings ratio, stocks are more attractive, he said. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) ended flat, up 0.04%, with declining German (.GDAXI) and French (.FCHI) indices closing lower and Britain’s FTSE 100 (.FTSE) rising on the day.

Emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) rose 0.30% and on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 0.08%, but the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 0.39% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 1.2%. China remains an issue, as does Europe, especially eastern Europe and Putin’s threats toward Finnish and Swedish plans to join NATO, said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder.

“When you see big up days, I’m not surprised to see some profit-taking on the subsequent day,” Ghriskey said, referring to Friday’s rally on Wall Street. “We’re simply seeing a reaction to recent strength. There are various factors driving the market, but in general, none of them are very positive.” Goldman Sachs raised its 2022 earnings per share growth forecast to 8% from more than 5%, but cut its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 4,300 from 4,700 on interest rate and growth fears.

Former Goldman Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein said on Sunday he believes the U.S. economy is at risk of possibly going into a recession as the Fed continues to raise rates to tackle rising inflation. The dollar was down slightly after hitting a 20-year peak last week. The dollar index fell 0.316%, with the euro up 0.18% at $1.0431 and the Japanese yen 0.09% firmer at 129.07 per dollar.

The dollar is likely to strengthen because of the macro economic outlook, whose fundamentals don’t look good, said Bipan Rai, North America head of FX Strategy at CIBC Capital Markets. “From a risk-off perspective, that should still support the dollar against most currencies,” Rai said.

But the dollar is consolidating after recent strength and could see more range-bound trading sessions, he said. The euro was near its lowest since 2017. European Central Bank policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the euro’s weakness could threaten the central bank’s efforts to steer inflation toward its target.

Gold rose slightly as declining Treasury yields offset headwinds from a relatively firm dollar that, along with the prospect of interest rate hikes, had pushed bullion to a more than 3-1/2 month low. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.3% at $1,814 an ounce.

Oil rose as the European Union stepped closer to an import ban on Russian crude and traders viewed signs that the COVID-19 pandemic was receding in the hardest-hit areas of China, suggesting a significant demand recovery was in the works.

U.S. crude futures settled up $3.71 at $114.20 a barrel, while Brent rose $2.69 to settle at $114.24 a barrel. Bitcoin last fell 5.21% to $29,664.88. European government bond yields rose, with Germany’s 10-year yield down 0.9 basis points at 0.943% – below the roughly eight-year high of 1.19% it reached last Monday .

The ECB will likely decide at its next meeting to end its stimulus program in July and raise interest rates “very soon” after that, ECB policymaker Pablo Hernandez de Cos said on Saturday.

Reporting by Herbert Lash; additional reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft in London; editing by Ed Osmond, Chizu Nomiyama, Jonathan Oatis and Richard Chang